By Tucker Harlin

First off, I’d like to recap my performance from last week.

I’ll give myself about a 3.5/5 on the accuracy meter for my predictions in Week 3. The half is the game in Dallas because the Cowboys made an effort to make the game close at the end, but I completely whiffed on Texans at Vikings.

There were several outcomes last week I would never have predicted, like the Broncos leaving Tampa with a blowout win or Andy Dalton to have the best single game performance by a quarterback in the Panthers’ win over the Raiders.

Week 4 is the first where I’ve had to put some thought into which matchups are the best because I’m having to decide between higher quality contests on paper.

These are my top five matchups heading in the final week of September in ascending order.

5. SAINTS (2-1) @ FALCONS (1-2)- ATL -2.5, 1 PM FOX, SUNDAY

Fun fact: the Saints and Falcons are 55-55 against each other all time. This was the game in which Jameis Winston angered the soon-to-be-fired Arthur Smith by running a play instead of taking a knee up three scores at the end of the game.

The matchup in the Mercedes-Benz Dome is pivotal for the NFC South playoff picture.

The Falcons have found their way into my Top 5 for the second week in a row. They’re one of the most entertaining 1-2 teams in the league, losing by one score to the Chiefs and Steelers at home while miraculously winning in Philadelphia.

Kirk Cousins is starting to return to form, and the pieces around him have elevated their play to put a more competitive product on the field.

The Saints came back down to earth in their 15-12 home loss to the Eagles in Week 3. The defense played well enough for the Saints to win for the most part, but Saquon Barkley ran wild at the end of the game. Alvin Kamara isn’t operating at 100% right now, so that’s worth monitoring.

Both teams have held their opponents in check with their defensive play, so the winner likely scores no more than 24 points.

4. EAGLES (2-1) @ BUCCANEERS (2-1)- PHI -2, 1 PM FOX, SUNDAY

This is yet another battle between playoff hopefuls.

Tampa has won five of the last six over Philly. Most recently, the Buccaneers sent the Eagles home with a thorough 32-9 defeat on a Monday night Wild Card game at Raymond James Stadium.

The Bucs are coming off a bizarre 26-7 loss to a rebuilding Broncos franchise, a game in which they were bullied up front on both sides of the ball and made Bo Nix look incredible.

The Eagles were able to put the Monday night heartbreak from Week 2 behind them and survive the Saints in a tight, low scoring affair in New Orleans. They are in somewhat of a predicament with both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith out for the time being, so the Eagles may lean more on the run game and Dallas Goedert.

Unless Baker Mayfield has a resurrection week of resurrection weeks, I don’t see a way this one is high scoring.

3. SEAHAWKS (3-0) @ LIONS (2-1)- DET -3.5, 8:15 PM ABC, MONDAY

Once again, you have two choices on Monday Night Football this week. Do yourself a favor and watch this game instead of the one on ESPN, unless of course you’re like me and root for the Titans.

The Seahawks have won 13 of 18 against the Lions and haven’t lost since 2012.

The Lions will be decked out in their blackout uniforms Monday. Detroit moved the ball well on the ground and never trailed in a 20-13 bounceback win over the Cardinals last week.

Seattle could provide a tougher test for the Lions’ defense this week. Kenneth Walker’s status is up in the air, but Zach Charbonnet has proven himself more than a competent replacement. The secondary hasn’t been amazing for Detroit to start the year, meaning it could be a big day for D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

The current total on ESPNBet is 46.5, tied for the second highest total in a game this week. Expect some points in this one.

2. BILLS (3-0) @ RAVENS (1-2)- BAL -2.5, 8:20 PM NBC, SUNDAY

Sunday Night Football has delivered through the first three weeks of the season, and a battle between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen should do just that this week.

The Bills are still one of the two best teams in the AFC right now. They had to scratch and claw their way to a victory in Week 1 against the Cardinals, but they’ve made light work of their last two against the Dolphins and Jaguars.

The Ravens haven’t started on quite as high of a note but showed what they were all about last week. Derrick Henry looked like the guy you saw in Tennessee all those years against the Cowboys in the Ravens’ 28-25 win.

While the Ravens’ win over the Cowboys was important, there are lots of questions about their pass defense as opposing offenses are averaging right at 300 yards through the air. Not a good sign with Josh Allen on the horizon.

This contest between AFC playoff hopefuls figures to feature lots of points.

1. VIKINGS (3-0) @ PACKERS (2-1)- GB -2.5, 1 PM, CBS

This old school NFC North rivalry was split last season with the road team exiting victorious.

The Vikings are perhaps the biggest story in all of the league this season. Sam Darnold has done what no NFL fan thought he was capable of and torched opposing defenses with his connection to Justin Jefferson in the first three weeks. Aaron Jones has also been a nice add to the team in free agency, and the defense has allowed no more than 17 points in a game this season.

The Packers have found creative ways to win without Jordan Love in each of the last two weeks by running the football with a guy the Titans couldn’t make any use out of. To thicken the plot, there is a strong possibility for Love to return this week.

If all goes right, this is another matchup where we could see a lot of points.

Tucker’s Top 5 NFL Football Games: Week 4

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