Sam’s Scenarios: The Dream for Every Tennessee Fan
Credit: University of Georgia Athletics
By Sam Beard
I've been thinking a lot about this college football playoff, just like every other Vol fan rolled up after another tough road loss at Georgia to officially have your CFP fate in the hands of someone other than yourself.
Teams like Indiana that were once a fun team to root for in their historic turnaround in year one under Curt Cignetti have quickly become your most hated opponent in the CFP race due to a SOS ranked 106th nationally.
The Penn State team that used to go 10-2 and fall short of their hopes year in and year out, is now most likely penciled in should it run the table and not even play for a BIG10 Championship.
A BYU team making a Cinderella run in the Big12 who drops a game after it seems their late game magic has run out. Will the Colorado Buffaloes steal the Big12 and put Prime on the biggest stage in CFB with first round picks Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter by his side??
Can Army pull off another upset on the fighting Irish again this year and stun Notre Dame in Yankee Stadium?? You can drive yourself crazy thinking of a whole bunch of scenarios to have Tennessee in or out of the playoff mix.
I got one. It’s crazy, but it’s a crazy year of football after all.
Texas A&M and Texas are on a collision course for an end of the year matchup in College station where the winner will likely head to the SEC Championship game.
Or will it?? Texas A&M travels to Auburn this weekend and as we all know as SEC fans, going down to Jordan-Hare is easier said than done… especially at night.
Mike Elko was asked about keeping his team focused on the task at hand and not looking forward to that Texas game, here’s what he had to say
Mike Elko was asked about the difficulty of keeping his team focused on Auburn with the November 30th rivalry game vs Texas just around the corner:
— The Next Round (@NextRoundLive) November 19, 2024
“Our focus is single-handedly on Texas…I mean Auburn…” 🫣
🎥 Texas A&M Athletics pic.twitter.com/SOZkS9etal
Auburn has been bad this year, but statistically they can do some decent things offensively. They just shoot themselves in the foot, and trust me, Hugh Freeze would be the first person to tell you that and throw his guys under the bus.
Let’s say these guys put it together on Saturday night and shock the CFB world by handing Texas A&M its third loss, which will eliminate it from playoff contention.
Would be a tough pill to swallow for a really gritty bunch at A&M for Mike Elko in year one. So gritty that they come back home to their night game at the end of the year vs the SEC new comer Texas Longhorns to play spoiler. Talk about a perfect spot to ruin someone’s dreams at running the playoff back after Sarkisian and his bunch fell short last year in the semifinals against Washington.
Everyone has just gone ahead and written in Texas as the team to come out of the SEC and I just don’t buy it yet.
If we’re gonna give Indiana and Penn State grief about who they have played then we have to be consistent with Texas to a degree. I know the Indiana SOS is ranked at 106 but Penn State is a much better measuring stick for a team like Texas.
Penn State owns an SOS good for 35th in the country while Texas’ SOS ranks at 38.
I think we would all be pounding the tables for a 2 loss Penn State team that falls short of a BIG10 Championship to miss the playoff. Let’s keep that same energy for a Texas team whose best win is either 6-4 Vanderbilt in Nashville that was a 3 point game, or in the first game of the year against Colorado State whose 2nd place in Mountain West at 7-3.
If Texas A&M can play spoiler and hand Texas its second loss of the year in the last game to finish at 10-2, losing to the only two ranked opponents they play all year, the committee better have the balls to leave out one of its big brands.
Should this scenario happen, I’m gonna lead into what I hope the playoff rankings look like based on how I think the rest of the season plays out.
Oregon- BIG 10 winner, most dominant team all year, presumed two wins over Ohio State if it comes in the conference championship as well.
Georgia- SEC winner, road win at Texas, drumming of Clemson, win over Tennessee, and in this doomsday scenario I’m pretty sure Alabama as well in the SEC Championship? Not a math guy, check me on that.
SMU- ACC winner, I had a hard time picking it over Miami, but it doesn’t like to play defense and maybe Cam Ward has some boneheaded turnovers to get SMU a conference championship. Wins over Louisville and Pitt with the lone loss to a BYU team we found out was good.
Colorado- Big 12 winner. For a while we thought BYU was never gonna lose, but credit to Prime’s bunch for stacking wins and improving. I can’t help but like what he’s got going right now and boy would they be entertaining in the first year of the expanded playoffs. This is a TV production after all, and there is nobody more polarizing than this team.
Ohio State- Gets the first at-large bid for me since I can’t punish a BIG 10 runner up. Its only two losses are to the best team in the country. Here is the best spot in the playoff, Ryan Day… I’m sure you won’t screw this up.
Alabama- Finds itself at #6 as the SEC Championship runner up. While this kicks it to three losses, I again can’t punish a team losing in a conference championship that has wins over Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri and LSU on the road. Keep this thing close (I don’t want to have to think about what happens if a two loss team gets blown out in a conference championship) and they will find themselves in good standing. After all, Alabama seems to be the only team that can beat Kirby and his band of criminals down there.
Penn State- Typing that out pains me. 11-1 is impressive in a power conference. I get it, but I’m just sick and tired of propping up James Franklin and his program that always falls short of what every Penn State fan wants. I wanted to put an 11-1 Indiana here, but the fact that Penn State has at least played a better schedule is putting it over the edge here. I feel bad for fans up there buying into whatever Franklin tells you at the start of every year, and I hate to tell you it’s going to hurt even more when you lose in the playoffs. Here’s a home playoff game that I can’t wait to bet against you in.
Ole Miss- I wanted to put our Vols here, but I think this committee really likes the style points they put on inferior opponents and an 18-point win over Georgia coupled with a 24-point road win at South Carolina gives them a nice leg to stand on. The Kentucky and LSU losses are pretty ugly, but the committee is crazy and doesn’t do anything right. I guess I'll try and factor that in here.
Tennessee- All we said in the summer was 10-2 and you simply have to make the playoff, now we need some help. The Arkansas loss on the road at night feels overblown as the Razorbacks can potentially finish the year 7-5. You played your worst defensive game of the year at Georgia and it was a 7-point game deep into the 4th quarter. Fantastic defense, Heisman caliber running back, and somehow a win over Bama that nobody seems to respect.
Notre Dame- Yes, it has the ugliest loss out there at home to Northern Illinois, but the other wins they have can mask the stench of that NIU loss. Texas A&M on the road, Louisville, and potentially two ranked service academies which can be a hard scout mid-season.
Indiana- Just as everyone expected going into the year… the 11-1 Indiana Hoosiers. Curt Cignetti has done a helluva job with this program in his first year. Sure, they haven’t played anyone. but they have run everyone else off the field. Should they keep it close this weekend against Ohio State, I think this squad can sneak into the playoff with the chaos that hopefully ensues with the Texas schools.
Boise State- College football sickos rejoice! We get Ashton Jeanty on the biggest stage in the CFP, giving the country a chance to watch this guy play before 2 a.m. without watching him run on blue turf. Running the table in the Mountain West is the expectation for Boise State this year with the lone loss on the road against Oregon by a field goal. By the way, Jeanty ran for 192 yards and 3 touchdowns in that game. You better come ready to play against this guy.
No. 12 Boise State @ No. 5 Ohio State- Ryan Day gets the most advantageous spot in the playoff getting the G5 team followed by lowest rated P4 champ… unless Ashton Jeanty works his magic one more time.
No. 11 Indiana @ No. 6 Alabama- Curt Cignetti makes his return to Tuscaloosa where he once roamed the sidelines with Nick Saban at the start of his tenure.
A salty IU bunch that feels disrespected and “hasn’t played anybody.” Well, they haven’t, but this is a great way to figure out how they stack up. Kalen DeBoer has experience coaching in the CFP, but can he take the pressure of doing it at Alabama? The storylines in this game would be awesome
No. 10 Notre Dame @ No. 7 Penn State- A beautiful matchup of 80s football!! What more can you ask for?!?! If I could bet against both of these teams in this game, I would.
I don’t want anyone to come out with a win. That being said, all time uniform matchup, so count me in.
No. 9 Tennessee @ No. 8 Ole Miss- Lane Kiffin vs Josh Heupel part two.
Barring more mustard and golf balls, this has the makings for an all time game in the first ever 12-team CFP. Very similar resumes and two teams that are knocking on the door of taking that next step into national championship contention, this would be a hell of a test in Round 1.
Vols run game with Dylan Sampson against Walter Nolen and the Ole Miss front, Jaxon Dart and Tre Harris against a hungry Vols front seven and guys like Jermod McCoy on the back end. Oh yeah, and Lane Kiffin coaching against his old team.
