Tucker’s Top 10: Week 13

Written By Tucker Harlin

Credit: Texas A&M Athletics

By Tucker Harlin

The picture is getting clearer.

Thanks to the decisions made by the College Football Playoff committee, my Top 10 for Week 13 was an easy one. I’m keeping my eyes on trap games and the handful of ranked matchups in the second to last week of the college football season.

Here we go:

10. PITTSBURGH (7-3) @ LOUISVILLE (6-4)- LOU -8, 4 PM, ESPN

These two have gone back and forth in the past three seasons with a 3-9 Pittsburgh team prevailing 38-21 over a Louisville team that made the ACC title game.

My biggest question with this game is how Pitt responds after having its heart ripped out by Cade Klubnik last week. Eli Holstein’s injury status will be something to watch ahead of this one.

We assumed Louisville was deserving of an entry in the Top 25 all year, especially after it beat Clemson. That is, until it lost on the road to a Stanford team that had won two games prior to last week.

I’m thinking this one is close and should feature some points.

9. #13 SMU (9-1) @ VIRGINIA (5-5)- SMU -9.5, NOON ESPN2

The meeting in Charlottesville will be the first between these newly acquainted ACC foes. They were supposed to meet in the 2021 Fenway Bowl, a game that was canceled due to COVID.

Don’t let a 10-point win over Boston College fool you; SMU was in a fight to the finish with the Eagles last week, despite the loss of Thomas Castellanos to the transfer portal.

It’s taken a minute, but Tony Elliott’s Cavaliers are beginning to improve.

Virginia is 5-5 with competitive losses to Louisville, Clemson, and won closely at Pittsburgh two weeks ago. The offense is far ahead of what it was a season ago.

The Wahoos will be motivated to reach their first bowl in four years.

8. #7 ALABAMA (8-2) @ OKLAHOMA (5-5)- ALA -13.5, 7:30 PM ABC

Four of the six meetings between these new SEC foes are in the postseason. Alabama won the most recent meeting over Heisman Kyler Murray in the 2018 College Football Playoff, but the Sooners prevailed in a very forgotten Sugar Bowl to end the 2013 season.

I know who I like more on paper, but I also believe Oklahoma will offer the Tide its toughest challenge in a little over a month on the defensive end.

That said, the Sooners won’t challenge Alabama much with their offense. I like Alabama to win, although I’m not sure if it covers.

7. #4 PENN STATE (9-1) @ MINNESOTA (6-4)- PSU -12.5, 3:30 PM CBS

These two don’t meet every year, but the last two meetings in Minneapolis have gone the way of the Gophers. The 2019 meeting featured P.J. Fleck’s best Minnesota team, and it prevailed over Trace McSorley and a Cotton Bowl-bound Penn State.

Minnesota feels like a team that can win or lose against anyone. It lost by 17 at home in the Floyd of Rosedale game, only to go down to Illinois and win 25-17 just a few weeks later.

Penn State only has one ranked win over a team in the current Top 25. Philosophically, it’s no different than any of the other Big 10 teams with its slower offense and strong defense.

First to 17 probably wins this one.

6. #15 TEXAS A&M (8-2) @ AUBURN (4-6)- A&M -2.5, 7:30 PM ESPN

These old SEC West foes have gone back and forth over the years. Texas A&M pulled away in College Station last season, but Auburn won an ugly 13-10 slugfest the last time they met on the plains.

Is this the week Auburn finally wins a close game? The Tigers have lost to Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, Cal, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Vandy by 10 or less points over the last two seasons.

What I’m interested to see is how Texas A&M’s run game functions on the road after losing Le’Veon Moss for the year. The Aggies were expected to showcase a three-headed monster this season, but Amari Daniels and E.J. Smith is what’s left at running back.

Mike Elko also slipped up in his weekly availability, some additional bulletin board material for Auburn.

I’m fascinated by the line giving the Aggies just 2.5. Vegas has been wrong about Auburn all season.

5. #16 COLORADO (8-2) @ KANSAS (4-6)- COLO -2.5, 3:30 PM FOX

Colorado leads the series 42-23-5 all time, but Kansas has won four of the last five. Granted, they haven’t played in the same conference in 14 years.

With BYU’s loss last week, Coach Prime and the Buffaloes are right back in the Big 12 title race. Colorado dismantled Utah 49-24 in Boulder last week, and Travis Hunter had his Heisman moment.

Kansas was the team to ruin the unbeaten season for BYU.

In fact, the Jayhawks are on a bit of an upset run with a 45-36 win over Iowa State the week prior. Jalon Daniels, Devin Neal, and the rest of the offense is no joke when healthy.

Expect an entertaining, high scoring battle in Lawrence Saturday.

4. #14 BYU (9-1) @ #21 ARIZONA STATE (8-2)- ASU -3, 3:30 PM ESPN

The Cougars and Sun Devils once met annually, but BYU’s 27-17 win in Provo during the 2021 regular season is the only meeting in the 21st century.

The question with BYU this week is how it responds to an ugly loss at home against a quality opponent on the road. You know the defense is good enough to keep the Cougars in the game, but can Jake Retzlaff and the rest of the offense make enough big plays on the road?

Arizona State has to be the least discussed 8-2 team in the country right now. The Sun Devils are fresh off a big road win at Kansas State and feature one of the most difficult running backs to bring down in Cam Skattebo.

Should the Sun Devils pull it off, we’re suddenly discussing playoff possibilities for them ahead of championship weekend.

3. #19 ARMY (9-0) vs #6 NOTRE DAME (9-1) (Yankee Stadium)- ND -14.5, 7 PM NBC

Notre Dame leads this series 39-8-4 and hasn’t lost to the Black Knights since 1958.

I can already tell you that both teams will look to run the football and milk as much clock as they can on each possession. This is one of Notre Dame’s biggest tests of the season while it’s Army’s biggest test of the season.

Notre Dame should be eliminated from playoff contention if it loses, and Army will need help from non-Boise State teams to reach the playoff should it lose.

2. #9 OLE MISS (8-2) @ FLORIDA (5-5)- MISS -10.5, NOON ABC

These two don’t meet every year, but the series has produced some memorable moments in the last 20 years.

The start of the Lane Kiffin era was in a 51-35 loss to the Gators in Oxford. The last meeting between these two in the swamp turned into a 38-10 blowout for Florida over Chad Kelly and the Rebels

Of course, you can’t forget about Ole Miss’ 31-30 victory in Gainesville from 2008, the loss which led Tim Tebow to make “The Promise.”

Which version of Ole Miss are we getting? The one that lost to Kentucky and LSU or the one that dominated the line of scrimmage against Georgia?

This is a new kind of “big game” for Lane Kiffin. We always talked about Lane losing the big ones before he beat Georgia, but he’s never had to win a game against an underperforming foe this late in the season to stay in a playoff race.

Florida appears to have unlocked newfound potential at quarterback thanks to the play of D.J. Lagway. What I’m wondering about with the Gators is if a big win over LSU has any kind of hangover effect.

Of all the hypotheticals for SEC teams on the outside looking in, this is the one with the highest probability of working in their direction.

1. #5 INDIANA @ #2 OHIO STATE- OSU -13.5, NOON FOX

The Buckeyes lead this series 79-12-5 and haven’t lost since 1988 to the Hoosiers.

Indiana sits pretty in the current College Football Playoff rankings. It’s done a nice job of blowing out weak teams all season long, but it struggled with the first middling team it saw.

Ohio State doesn’t strike a ton of fear in me this season, but I still wouldn’t want to visit the shoe in the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes haven’t run the ball well this year, and Will Howard hasn’t amazed anyone with his play at quarterback.

If Indiana wins, we can drop this whole debate. If it gets blown out, it needs to be dropped from the rankings.

Tucker Harlin
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