Projected SEC Football Finishes Midway Through 2024: Part 2

GEORGIA- Current Record: 5-1 Floor: 9-3 Ceiling: 11-1

Georgia did the usual Georgia thing in its dominant wins against Clemson and Tennessee Tech in the first two weeks.

But SEC play is has been tougher than usual for Kirby Smart in 2024.

It’s not shocking the Bulldogs fell at Alabama, but a one-point victory at Kentucky and tougher than anticipated battles against both Auburn and Mississippi State are not what fans had in mind.

The fact some of the worst teams in the SEC have played Georgia close in Athens have me wondering if a loss to Ole Miss or Tennessee is in the future. The trip to Texas next week is Georgia’s toughest remaining game, one that’s definitely losable. But at the same time, Georgia can win all of these games.

The other three games against Florida, UMass, and Georgia Tech should all end up as wins.

UMass is currently 1-6, Florida has lost its best quarterback for the season, and Georgia Tech hasn’t touched Kirby Smart in the last seven seasons.

KENTUCKY- Current Record: 3-3 Floor: 5-7 Ceiling: 8-4

Outside of one surprising win at Ole Miss, nothing about this Kentucky team differs from others we’ve seen under Mark Stoops.

The Wildcats are solid defensively, but the offense has swung and missed on a third consecutive transfer quarterback. Since the back end of the 2021 season, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Georgia are victorious in as many SEC games in Kroger Field as Kentucky.

We know the Wildcats will take down Murray State, so that’s four wins. They can beat both Florida in the swamp and Auburn at home, but I don’t know if they can pull of both.

Louisville is one I’m not certain Kentucky wins either, but post-Lamar Jackson Louisville is awful against the Wildcats so the Governor’s Cup is definitely winnable.

The only two games I don’t envision Kentucky winning are at both Tennessee and Texas.

The Wildcats have one win in Neyland Stadium in 40 years and it was in front of a quarter-capacity crowd. That series is dominated by Tennessee both in Lexington and Knoxville.

As for Texas, that’s the best team Kentucky will face all season.

LSU- Current Record: 5-1 Floor: 8-4 Ceiling: 10-2

LSU looks like your average Brian Kelly-coached team right now.

The Tigers have won all but one of their first six games, but that loss to USC looks worse and worse with each passing week. The Tigers were supposed to beat South Carolina and UCLA, and Ole Miss hasn’t won in Baton Rouge in 16 years.

I predicted LSU to go 10-2 this season, and that’s definitely attainable. But I also think the next three contests are going to tell us a lot about who this team is.

Regardless of how good or bad it is, Arkansas always finds a way to turn the Battle of the Boot into a competitive battle. Texas A&M is playing really good football right now, and the Tigers haven’t won in College Station since 2016. I honestly think a test at home against Alabama may be the easiest of those three.

The final three games should all end as wins.

A Graham Mertz-less Florida on the road doesn’t look challenging and an offense-less Oklahoma doesn’t pose a threat in Death Valley.

It’s easy to go falling in love with Vanderbilt right now, but a night game in Death Valley is a challenge the likes of which Diego Pavia hasn’t seen yet. His idol Johnny Manziel took a 34-10 whooping in 2013 when he had to travel to Baton Rouge.

MISSISSIPPI STATE- Current Record: 1-5 Floor: 2-10 Ceiling: 3-9

Year 1 has been hard on Jeff Lebby. We knew the defense was going to struggle, but the offense has not lived up to its expectations with the injury to quarterback Blake Shapen

At least the loss at Arizona State doesn’t look so bad now, but loss to Toledo by 24 at home is never a good look for an SEC team. The Florida loss is depreciating in value, and Georgia and Texas are still playoff contenders.

I think UMass is a win in early November, but I don’t know what the third win to achieve my ceiling for the Bulldogs would be.

Texas A&M and Arkansas both come to Starkville in the next two weeks, but both of those teams look a lot better than anticipated this season. Missouri comes to Starkville in late November, but I have a hard time seeing the Bulldogs getting up for that one if they’re 1-9 or 2-8 by that point.

The last two road trips are to Tennessee and Ole Miss. I don’t think there’s a shot at Tennessee, but the Egg Bowl is anything but normal so I can imagine things getting weird on Black Friday.