Projected SEC Football Finishes Midway Through 2024: Part 3
By Tucker Harlin
MISSOURI: Current Record: 5-1 Floor: 8-4 Ceiling: 10-2
I said Missouri would finish 10-2 before the season started not because I thought it was an elite football team but because its schedule presented it with layups.
Three of the Tigers’ five wins are against teams outside of the power four realm while the other two are escapes against Boston College and Vanderbilt in Columbia. The Vandy win actually looks a lot better a month later, but it definitely felt like Mizzou was exposed in College Station.
The 10-2 with a loss to Alabama prediction is definitely on the table, but swap Oklahoma for Texas A&M as the other loss. Oklahoma has done nothing to suggest its offense is capable of winning big games on the road this season, not even in the win at Auburn.
Speaking of Auburn, I like Mizzou’s shot this weekend against the Tigers from the plains. Auburn seriously might be one of the two worst teams in the SEC this season with the different ways it has found to lose this season.
The final three games on the schedule are trips to South Carolina and Mississippi State and the Battle Line game in Faurot Field. I’m confident the Tigers will win in Starkville, but I’m not sure about the other two.
South Carolina looks like a different team every week and Arkansas is not in the hot seat scenario many thought 2024 would set up for Sam Pittman.
Fortunately for Mizzou, it tends to do well against both programs. Eli Drinkwitz is unbeaten against South Carolina and Missouri is 8-2 against Arkansas since joining the SEC, unbeaten at home.
OKLAHOMA- Current Record: 4-2 Floor: 5-7 Ceiling: 6-6
My 7-5 projection for Oklahoma before the season looks very generous right now.
Three of the Sooners’ four wins are against non conference foes, one of which is currently 2-4 in a weak Big 12. The SEC win is against an Auburn team that is snake bitten by turnovers, and Oklahoma desperately needed a turnover to win on the plains.
The offense is the worst it has looked in at least a quarter of a century. Jackson Arnold’s turnover problem was exposed on national television against Tennessee, and Michael Hawkins Jr had an awful performance in Arnold’s relief against Texas last week.
The only positive certainty left on Oklahoma’s schedule is a win over Maine.
South Carolina looked like a win before the season. Maybe it still is, but the chaotic energy surrounding the Gamecocks is not one I want a part of.
The other four SEC games left are against Alabama and trips to Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU. None of those look winnable right now.
OLE MISS- Current Record: 5-2 Floor: 8-4 Ceiling 9-3
The Rebels have played one more game than everyone else in the SEC at this point, so they only have five remaining on the schedule.
The only two power four wins for Ole Miss are on the road against Wake Forest and South Carolina. Wake Forest looks bad again and I can’t figure out what version of South Carolina we’re getting from one week to the next.
I picked LSU to beat Ole Miss in Baton Rouge based on the Rebels’ struggles in Death Valley the last 16 years. But what I didn’t pick was an average Mark Stoops Kentucky team going into Oxford and leaving with a win.
The loss to Kentucky has me wondering if Ole Miss will put up another stinker in the future.
Georgia is the only opponent I don’t think Ole Miss has a strong shot at the rest of the way. I don’t love the way Georgia has played over the last month, but I feel even less confident about Ole Miss in SEC play.
Arkansas is the other game I don’t feel great about if I’m an Ole Miss fan. The two wins the Rebels have pulled out in Arkansas the last 15 years are against John L. Smith and Chad Morris, so competent Razorback teams often prevail when the two meet in the Natural State.
The games against Mississippi and Oklahoma and at Florida should all be wins. I forecast every one of those three to struggle down the stretch, but that Kentucky game still has me questioning whether or not the Rebels drop a stinker somewhere in those games.
SOUTH CAROLINA- Current Record: 3-3 Floor: 4-8 Ceiling: 7-5
I’m having a very hard time wrapping my brain around South Carolina. The defense and special teams look very good for the Gamecocks, but the offense is up and down.
I predicted a 4-8 finish for the Gamecocks before the season began and I still can’t rule it out.
This team went on the road and blew out Kentucky and held strong with Alabama but got blasted at home by Ole Miss, so there’s no rhyme or reason to the way 2024 is playing out for Shane Beamer.
I know Wofford is a win for the Gamecocks, but I have no other positive guarantees.
Texas A&M and Missouri are the last two SEC home games. The Aggies are ahead of schedule on their rebuild and have only lost once to the Gamecocks since joining the SEC. The Tigers haven’t lost to the Gamecocks under Eli Drinkwitz.
Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Clemson are the remaining road games.
Oklahoma stands out as the most winnable of those three. The Sooners have struggled mightily on offense, a weakness the Gamecocks should have no issue exploiting this weekend.
Vandy isn’t going to be an easy test, but the Gamecocks’ win streak over the Commodores is the third in consecutive years in the SEC. Clemson should be the toughest of these road games as it’s suddenly playing great football with Cade Klubnik.
