Projected SEC Football Finishes Midway Through 2024: Part 1
By: Tucker Harlin
We have officially reached the halfway point of the 2024 college football season. By now, fans have adjusted expectations for the back end of the season based on their team’s performance through the first seven weeks.
These are my adjusted expectations for each SEC team for the back half of 2024, broken into four parts.
ALABAMA- Current Record: 5-1 Floor: 9-3 Ceiling: 11-1
September of Kalen DeBoer’s first season in Tuscaloosa was a good month overall.
There was a minor hiccup in a win over USF, but the Tide got out of the month with important wins at Wisconsin and against a Georgia team that had been atop the SEC for the better part of four years.
But October hasn’t been kind to Alabama as it lost for the first time in 40 years to Vanderbilt and struggled to get past South Carolina in Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Jalen Milroe has become the suspect version of himself that we last saw against Texas in 2023. What’s more suspect is the defense’s play through the last two games.
So what does the future hold?
The final three games on the Tide’s schedule should result in wins.
Auburn looks bad this season and hasn’t won in Tuscaloosa since the Camback in 2010. Oklahoma is so bad on offense right now that finding a conference win the rest of the way looks impossible. I don’t owe you an explanation for Mercer.
The next three games are where things could get messy for the Tide, particularly the trips to Tennessee and LSU. Milroe’s best SEC road win is against a Texas A&M team that was a month from firing Jimbo Fisher, and Kalen DeBoer doesn’t have an SEC road win.
Those two games and the one against Missouri aren’t guarantees, but I definitely don’t see the Tide losing all three.
ARKANSAS- Current Record: 4-2 Floor: 6-6 Ceiling: 10-2
This is one of the larger gaps between a floor and ceiling I’ll discuss.
Sam Pittman has an opportunity to coach his way off a hot seat, something few can accomplish.
I wasn’t blown away by Arkansas in its first three power four games, which were a pair of one score losses at Oklahoma State and against Texas A&M with a survival at Auburn
But I wonder if it found something in the win over Tennessee. The run game and defense were strong before Tennessee, but Taylen Green played his best game of the season against the Vols.
We’ll know for sure if Arkansas found something when it plays #8 LSU in Fayetteville this weekend, a game I definitely think it’s capable of winning.
Should it win against LSU, the possibilities are open for wins against Ole Miss, Texas, and Missouri later on.
Should Arkansas lose Saturday, Mississippi State and Louisiana Tech are the only guarantees. I expect the Razorbacks to play competitive football in every game remaining on the schedule.
AUBURN- Current Record: 2-4 Floor: 3-9 Ceiling: 5-7
Auburn’s 2024 season is the definition of thinking you’re biting into a chocolate chip cookie only to find out it’s an oatmeal raisin cookie.
2-4 was not the start they were anticipating on the plains in Hugh Freeze’s second season. With all of the transfers on offense and returning defensive skill players, you’d think the Tigers could put together a six to seven win season at minimum.
The worst part about the four losses is the fact only one is against a team in the current poll and on the road. The hype around Cal is beginning to die down, Arkansas is still a mystery, and Oklahoma doesn’t have a functional offense.
I guarantee you the last two games of the season are losses. The Aggies are playing good football right now and the Tigers are generally miserable in Tuscaloosa as of late.
The next four games are all winnable, but ULM is the only one I’d guarantee a win in.
Missouri and Kentucky have both exposed serious flaws, but how will Auburn handle both on the road?
The Tigers were first in the SEC to discover Diego Pavia, and I don’t necessarily see them as better off this time around. However, Vandy lost to Georgia State so anything is possible.
A bowl game for Auburn would be miraculous considering the present situation.
FLORIDA- Current Record: 3-3 Floor: 4-8 Ceiling: 5-7
I can’t approach Florida with much optimism for the road ahead.
The Gators were dominated in home losses to Miami and Texas A&M in the first month of the season and lost their quarterback in an emotional road loss at Tennessee. Their two power four wins are against Mississippi State and UCF, neither of which look good right now.
The topic of the Gators’ schedule was a ubiquitous one across the league before the season began, and they’re about to get into the meat of that schedule without veteran quarterback Graham Mertz.
I’m giving Florida a win in the Sunshine Bowl because of how putrid Florida State has looked through the first half of the season. The other game in which I think a win is possible is Kentucky, but Florida has struggled against the Wildcats the last six seasons.
LSU and Ole Miss are the two most winnable games for Florida in that month long stretch of ranked games between this weekend and the end of the season.
But after their contests against Georgia and Texas, I expect the Gators to be battered, bruised, and fatigued when the Tigers and Rebels come to town.
