Projected SEC Football Finishes Midway Through 2024: Part 4

Credit: University of Tennessee Athletics

By Tucker Harlin

TENNESSEE- Current Record: 5-1 Floor: 8-4 Ceiling 10-2

The fourth season of the Josh Heupel era is off to a decent start.

Tennessee caught the attention of national media personalities in September, but the offense isn’t humming the way many anticipated in early October. Heupel’s team is really living up to the old football adage of “offense scores touchdowns, defense wins championships” through six games, not something most expected.

The loss at Arkansas was a stinker of a game, but the Vols at least appear to be on the track of improvement with their offensive efforts in the win over Florida. It’s a matter of execution now.

I think Tennessee beats UTEP, Kentucky, and Mississippi State for sure.

I owe you no explanation for UTEP. It’s been since the mid-1980s since both Kentucky and Mississippi State left a full-capacity Neyland Stadium with a win, and neither one of those teams is playing well enough to shift that narrative.

Alabama and Georgia were the games I was least confident in for Tennessee before the season, and I still believe those games will require a little extra for the Vols to get a win.

Vanderbilt has suddenly emerged as a decent SEC team. A lot of season lies between now and the final Saturday of November, but Vandy isn’t the free win everybody in the SEC was expecting this season.

TEXAS A&M- Current Record: 5-1 Floor: 8-4 Ceiling: 11-1

Maybe Texas A&M has me drinking some strong Kool-Aid, but Mike Elko has exceeded my expectation of 7-5 this season.

The loss to Notre Dame was a tough way to begin the season, but the Irish boast the best defense the Aggies will see all year. Marcel Reed quarterbacked the Aggies to a win at Florida and a survival against Arkansas in the Southwest Classic.

I thought Conner Weigman starting against Missouri wasn’t the right move for the Aggies, but much to my surprise it worked amazingly well in the 41-10 win.

The three games the Aggies should definitely win are New Mexico State and at Auburn and Mississippi State. I’m at the very least giving Texas A&M a shot against LSU, South Carolina, and Texas.

I like the way the Aggies’ schedule builds throughout the year. A win over Mizzou sets up what should be a blowout Mississippi State, which in turn could set up a big win against LSU in College Station.

I’ve already talked about how bizarre South Carolina is this season. The Aggies are 9-1 against the Gamecocks, the only loss coming when the Aggies were at their very worst since joining the SEC. Safe to say history sides with the Aggies.

Then there’s Texas. I’m NOT saying the Aggies will knock off the Longhorns, but watch out if they host the Longhorns with a 10-1 record.

TEXAS- Current Record: 6-0 Floor: 10-2 Ceiling: 12-0

Texas couldn’t have drawn up a better start to its time as an SEC member.

The Horns have beaten up on defending national champion Michigan, Mississippi State, and rival Oklahoma through six games. Half of those six games were without Quinn Ewers as he dealt with an oblique injury.

But how will Texas fare as it gets into the meat of its schedule?

Georgia was the most losable game for the Horns on paper before the season. While that’s still the case, Georgia has also shown more weakness than expected this year, so a win over the Bulldogs wouldn’t be a huge surprise.

Keep your eyes on the road games against Vanderbilt, Arkansas, and Texas A&M. At the very most Texas will only lose one of those three, but all three can and should be considered trap games.

There’s no chance either Florida or Kentucky leave Austin with a win. Texas wins both of those games by 20-plus.

VANDERBILT- Current Record: 4-2 Floor: 6-6 Ceiling: 8-4

There’s not a bigger surprise in the SEC right now than the Vanderbilt Commodores.

In the span of a month, this team went from losing at Georgia State to taking down Alabama for the first time in 40 years. Vandy’s not playing the prettiest offense you’ll ever see, but it has led to far better results than anticipated in West End.

Vandy definitely beats Ball State this week and probably wins at least another SEC game. My best guess is a win at Auburn and possibly South Carolina, but 2008 is the last time the Dores beat the Gamecocks.

As for the ranked opponents left on the schedule, Tennessee is Vanderbilt’s best opportunity for another ranked win.

Texas coming to Nashville sets up for a better opportunity than it would in Austin, but does Vandy really have what it takes to dethrone two #1s in a season?

I don’t like Vandy’s chances at LSU. That game will be played at 6 PM or later and that environment will be the most hostile Vandy plays in all season.