Tucker’s Top 10: Week 3 College Football Matchups
Credit: University of Florida Athletics
By Tucker Harlin
It’s time for me to release my Top 10 college football games of Week 3.
I only went about 5/10 on picking great games last week, but the slate delivered in ways I didn’t expect.
Let’s hope Week 3 can do that because it’s the weakest slate on paper so far.
If you think several of the matchups in my Top 10 aren’t strong this week, I’m alright with that.
10. #18 NOTRE DAME (1-1) @ PURDUE (1-0)- ND -11.5, 3:30 PM CBS
These two Indiana schools used to meet annually, but they’ve only met once in the last 10 years.
The Irish won the 2021 meeting in South Bend 27-13, but it was a fight for about three quarters.
Irish fans don’t have much to be excited about after the ugly 16-14 loss Notre Dame suffered at home against Northern Illinois Saturday, and a road test at Ross-Ade Stadium against Purdue suddenly looks a bit more daunting.
The Boilermakers are making their first appearance in my Top 10 this year.
They are still rebuilding in the second year of Ryan Walters’ tenure in West Lafayette, but there was a period in Jeff Brohm’s tenure when any ranked team would be in for a brutal road environment if it traveled to Purdue.
The Boilermakers are off a bye, and their win is a 49-0 shutout of Indiana State.
The Irish have bounced back before under Marcus Freeman, and knowing the Boilermakers are facing their first true test of 2024, I think that’s what happens.
Notre Dame wins this game by scoring somewhere in the 20s.
9. UCF (2-0) @ TCU (2-0)- TCU -.5, 7:30 PM FOX
There is quite literally no history between UCF and TCU as this is their first meeting.
But if the line and total are any indication of what to expect, you’ll be in for a treat should you tune into this one.
Gus Malzahn’s bunch has only played New Hampshire and Sam Houston State, but the offensive identity is very much the same it was when Malzahn coached at Auburn.
Running back R.J. Harvey has run for 268 yards and six scores in the young season, and Malzahn now has a quarterback similar to Cam Newton’s physique in K.J. Jefferson (sorry Arkansas fans).
This is TCU’s second entry in my Top 10 this year and its Week 1 game against Stanford did not disappoint. Receivers J.P. Richardson and Jack Bech both went over 100 yards in the Horned Frogs’ win over the Cardinal that Friday.
I can’t call a winner in this one, but I like a tight, high scoring game between two middle of the pack Big 12 teams.
8. #9 OREGON (2-0) @ OREGON STATE (2-0)- ORE -16.5, 3:30 PM FOX
It feels very strange to be writing about what was once called the “Civil War” in September as opposed to November, but I respect these schools for somewhat upholding tradition.
The Ducks hold a 68-49-10 edge all time against the Beavers, but they’ve dropped each of the last two in Corvallis.
This is Oregon’s second appearance in my Top 10 in as many weeks. The Ducks haven’t exactly dominated the opening portion of the season, fighting for wins over Idaho and Boise State.
Life in the Pac 2 hasn’t been incredible for Oregon State. It won by three scores against both Idaho State and San Diego State, but they had to do a lot late in games to reach those margins. The Beavers still want their primary focus on offense to be the run game.
I’m very interested to see how Oregon plays in a road environment after watching it struggle to break away at home. I like the Ducks to win, but I can see a Beavers cover.
7. WASHINGTON STATE @ WASHINGTON- UW -4.5, 3:30 PM PEACOCK
Like the last matchup, it’s a bit bizarre to discuss the Apple Cup in September instead of November.
Washington holds a commanding 76-33-6 lead all time over Washington State and has won the last two Apple Cups.
The numbers have been consistent for the Huskies on offense to start the season in their wins over Weber State and Eastern Michigan. Mississippi State transfer Will Rogers has averaged about 255 pass yards per game and running back Jonah Coleman has run the ball for over 100 yards in each game.
Washington State runs the ball quite a bit more than it used to now that it’s in the Pac 2.
Quarterback John Mateer is a serious dual threat, running for 197 in the 37-16 win over Texas Tech and 55 more in the Cougars’ 70-30 win over Portland State. The combo of Wayshawn Parker and Djouvensky Schlenbaker (great name) have been a solid tandem.
I think you’re looking at a competitive matchup, but I like the Huskies in a tight one based on history.
6. WEST VIRGINIA (1-1) @ PITTSBURGH (2-0)- WVU -2.5, 3:30 PM ESPN2
These old Big East rivals went 11 years without seeing each other but will have met each of the last three seasons come Saturday.
Pitt leads the series 62-41-3, but the last two meetings are a split with West Virginia winning 17-6 in Morgantown in 2023 and Pitt winning a 38-31 thriller in Acrisure Stadium two years ago.
The Mountaineers took a beating at home from Penn State in the first week, but they pieced together a strong bounceback performance in their 49-14 win over Albany. The three-headed monster of quarterback Garrett Greene and running backs C.J. Donaldson and Jahiem White is where the Mountaineers want to concentrate their offensive attack.
Pitt’s 2-0 is an adventurous one.
It beat Kent State 55-24 on opening weekend, but it clawed all the way back from a 27-6 deficit late in the third quarter to win 28-27 at Cincinnati.
Quarterback Eli Holstein has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his first two games, and Western Carolina transfer Desmond Reid has been a heavy contributor both in the run and pass attack.
Pat Narduzzi’s bunch is better than the 3-9 it posted last season so I like the final margin to be close to the spread, but I’m not ready to call a winner yet.
5. #4 ALABAMA (2-0) @ WISCONSIN (2-0)- ALA -16, NOON FOX
Big Noon Kickoff is headed to Madison for Alabama’s second ever trip to Wisconsin, and it’s the first time the Tide and Badgers have met since the Tide’s 35-17 win in the 2015 opener in Jerry World
But neither team is exactly firing on all cylinders.
Wisconsin won by two touchdowns against both Western Michigan and South Dakota in the opening weeks of the season, and it’s not like both of those teams scored garbage touchdowns to end with those margins. Both games were fights for three quarters.
Alabama didn’t exactly run through USF the way the 42-16 score would indicate. USF just gave up in the middle of the fourth quarter by not going for it on 4th and Goal from the 4, down eight points.
The line is a pretty heavy tilt in favor of the Tide, and ultimately both the talent and big play capability it possesses should be enough to win at Wisconsin.
But I wouldn’t be shocked by a one score Bama win either.
4. #16 LSU (1-1) @ SOUTH CAROLINA (2-0)- LSU -7, NOON ESPN
Somehow, College Game Day decided to go to Columbia for this one.
They don’t play every year, but it’s now been 30 years since South Carolina last beat LSU. They’ve actually tied more recently (1995) than the Gamecocks’ last win.
You have to go back 16 years to find the last meeting between the two in Columbia. The 2015 meeting was moved to Baton Rouge because of Hurricane Joaquin.
Both teams had nice third quarters last week. South Carolina is fresh off a dominant road win at Kentucky while LSU had a surge against…. Nicholls.
Quarterback play is ultimately why LSU should keep its streak against the Gamecocks alive. Garrett Nussmeier is simply a much better passing quarterback than LaNorris Sellers.
While I do think South Carolina’s defensive front looks good through two games, it hasn’t seen an offensive line like what the Bayou Bengals are bringing to Columbia.
3. #24 BOSTON COLLEGE (2-0) @ #6 MISSOURI (2-0)- MIZ -17, 12:45 PM SEC NETWORK
This is the back end of a home and home. Boston College won 41-34 in Chestnut Hill back in 2021.
Both of these programs appear to be in better places at the start of 2024 compared to their last meeting.
The Bill O’Brien era has started nicely for the Eagles. They beat a severely overrated Florida State team 28-13 in Tallahassee on Labor Day and did what a power four team is supposed to do to Duquesne in their 56-0 win last week.
Missouri has outscored their opponents by a combined score of 89-0 in the first two weeks. Those two opponents are of course Murray State and Buffalo.
That betting line is skewed heavily toward the Tigers, but the dual threat ability of Thomas Castellanos combined with the Eagles running backs will create a challenge for the Tigers’ defense.
This is the first week we’re really going to learn what Mizzou is all about. I think the Tigers get the win, but we’re looking at a tighter game than what betting lines are indicating.
2. TEXAS A&M (1-1) @ FLORIDA (1-1)- A&M -4, 3:30 ABC
This will be the fifth meeting between the Gators and Aggies since the Aggies joined the SEC, and it’s usually pretty entertaining when they meet.
The only prior matchup in the swamp was a “hot seat bowl” back in 2017 when Florida busted out those ugly alligator skin uniforms. Former Centennial Cougar and current Seattle Seahawk Tyrel Dodson sealed a 19-17 win for the Aggies with a pick that night.
The most recent meeting was back in 2022, a 41-24 win for Anthony Richardson and the Gators.
Both Texas A&M and Florida had poor offensive showings in Week 1 losses and blew out FCS opponents in Week 2. These are two programs in desperate need of an encouraging showing on offense against tough competition.
I think we’re looking at two possibilities this week.
If Billy Napier becomes attached to Graham Mertz, we’re looking at a coin flip of a game. If D.J. Lagway comes out and demands playing time by the results he gives the Gators on the field, I like Florida to win.
1. #20 ARIZONA (2-0) @ #14 KANSAS STATE (2-0) (FRIDAY)- KSU -7.5, 8 PM FOX
Yes, the Week 3 college football slate is so bad the best game is on Friday night.
It’s the very traditional Big 12 blood feud of Arizona and Kansas State.
The Arizona Wildcats are 5-1-1 all time against the Kansas State Wildcats, but their last meeting was the same year the original Halloween movie hit theaters.
If you don’t already know, Arizona has one of the most fun quarterback to receiver connections in the country with Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan. Arizona didn’t exactly dominate either New Mexico or Northern Arizona, but Fifita and McMillan hooked up for 304 yards against the Lobos.
Kansas State has the lone blowout win with its 41-6 win over UT Martin back in Week 1, but a solid Tulane team gave it a sweat last week in New Orleans.
I really like what D.J. Giddens has given Kansas State at running back in the young season, and Avery Johnson will continue to get better at quarterback as the year goes on.
I’m not ready to call a winner in this matchup, but I’m looking forward to watching Friday night.
