Tucker’s Top 10 College Football Matchups: Week 9

Credit: Georgia Jones/LSU Athletics

By Tucker Harlin

I was a crisp 3/10 last week on my Top 10, and that’s giving myself partial credit on two games. Safe to say there were some blowouts in Week 8.

I can’t recall another weekend this year with more Top 25 matchups than the five in Week 9, so some upsets would really add to the fun this weekend. If the matchups aren’t between ranked teams, it’s because there is trap game potential.

Two of the games in my Top 10 will kickoff before Saturday, so be sure to check them out on Thursday and Friday.

10. #20 ILLINOIS (6-1) @ #1 OREGON (7-0)- ORE -21.5, 3:30 PM CBS

These two have met three times in their history, Oregon winning the two most recent matchups in a home and home in 1993 and 1995.

Illinois has done a terrific job of winning against Top 25 teams that have no staying power in Nebraska, Kansas, and Michigan. The ground and pound style of the Illini worked against those teams, but it didn’t work on the road against current #3 Penn State.

Oregon responded exactly the way you’d like to after an emotional win, shutting out Purdue in West Lafayette. Dillon Gabriel is thriving at his third school in four years.

Honestly, this one is in here because it’s a ranked against ranked matchup. I think Oregon wins this one without much trouble.

9. #5 TEXAS (6-1) @ #25 VANDERBILT (5-2)- TEX -18.5, 4:15 PM SEC NETWORK

Believe it or not, Vandy leads this series 8-3-1. Of course, the last meeting was in 1928.

My big question this week is how the Texas offense will respond after getting punched in the mouth by Georgia’s defense. I don’t expect Texas to struggle in this game offensively, but losses can cause damage for multiple weeks in the SEC if you let them.

Vandy won by 10 in a four-quarter fight against Ball State of all opponents. The only diagnosis I have for this being such a close game was an inability for the Commodores to find the end zone because there were no pressing mistakes otherwise.

There’s no reason Texas should lose this game, but 18.5 points is a pretty large spread considering the damage Vandy has caused this season.

8. #11 BYU (7-0) @ UCF (3-4)- BYU -1.5, 3:30 PM ESPN

BYU has won two of the three matchups between these Big 12 foes, including a 49-23 victory in the 2020 Boca Raton Bowl.

This is the first game this weekend I truly believe has trap game potential.

Interestingly, both BYU and UCF were involved in unsuccessful trap games last week. The Knights lost to a very good Iowa State team on the road 38-35 while the Cougars needed a touchdown in the final 10 seconds to fend off a struggling Oklahoma State team in a game that also ended 38-35.

UCF was terrible through the air against the Cyclones, doing all its damage on the ground. BYU also did much of its damage on the ground last week while turning the ball over in the air on a two occasions.

I don’t expect a ton of points in this game if the Cougars control the tempo.

7. #22 SMU (6-1) @ DUKE (6-1)- SMU -11.5, 8 PM ACC NETWORK

Nothing like a classic ACC matchup setting up for a potential trap game in Durham. The Blue Devils won the only two matchups from a home and home in the 1950s.

This isn’t a hot topic of conversation, but SMU is one of four ACC teams without a conference loss.

The Mustangs have it rolling on offense in conference play, scoring no less than 34 points in a game. They scored 40 in their blowout win against Stanford in Silicon Valley last week.

Something else that isn’t discussed much right now is the fact Duke is 6-1 in Manny Diaz’s first year on the job.

Four of the Blue Devils’ six wins are by one score, and they took down Florida State for the first time in program history last week. Duke’s lone loss was by 10 to a respectable Georgia Tech team.

SMU has the speed to blow Duke out, but watch out if the Blue Devils dictate game flow and time of possession.

6. #3 PENN STATE (6-0) @ WISCONSIN (5-2)- PSU -6.5, 7:30 PM NBC

The Nittany Lions lead the Badgers 11-9 all time and haven’t lost since 2011.

My primary rationale for including this game in the Top 10 is because we all know James Franklin is prone to dropping games at inopportune times. You’d be foolish to believe Penn State is making it through this season without a loss, despite the #3 next to its name.

October has been a terrific month for Wisconsin. It blasted a bad Purdue team 52-6 at home, did a similar number at Rutgers in a 42-7 blowout the next week, and won 23-3 against a bad Northwestern team.

Tawee Walker is starting to look like your prototypical Wisconsin running back while the defense continues to impress under Luke Fickell.

I expect a low scoring, first to 17 Big 10 affair on NBC.

5. #21 MISSOURI (6-1) @ #15 ALABAMA (5-2)- ALA -13.5, 3:30 PM ABC

Alabama has won by no less than 19 points in its four meetings against Missouri since the Tigers joined the SEC.

Both of these programs are in desperate need of a conference win.

The walls of Alabama’s dynasty have come crumbling down this month with a pair of close losses in the state of Tennessee. Jalen Milroe’s flaws have been exposed to the nation, the defense can’t get off the field on third down, and half the state wants Kalen DeBoer fired.

Missouri’s record is solid, but its one matchup against a team atop the SEC standings in a 41-10 blowout loss. The offense isn’t clicking the way it did a season ago, a big concern for the connection between Brady Cook and Luther Burden.

13.5 feels like too big of a number in favor of Alabama.

4. SYRACUSE (5-1) @ #19 PITTSBURGH (6-0) (Thursday)- PITT -6, 7:30 PM ESPN

Pittsburgh leads this streaky rivalry 43-32-3 all time. The Panthers have won all but four matchups since 2002, but one of the four was a 28-13 loss in the Bronx last season.

Despite an undefeated start to the year, Pittsburgh hasn’t gone through difficult competition yet. The Panthers’ best win to this point is over 5-2 Cincinnati while all of their two conference wins are against teams sitting around .500 on the season.

The one slipup Syracuse had was a bad one in a 26-24 home loss to Stanford. However, Kyle McCord and the Orange do boast close wins over UNLV and Georgia Tech, both of which are competitive programs this season.

The total of 62.5 is suggestive of lots of points, so you should definitely watch this one if Vikings at Rams doesn’t do the job for you on Prime Video.

3. #17 BOISE STATE (5-1) @ UNLV (6-1) (Friday)- BSU -3, 10:30 PM CBSSN

I’ve had my eyes on a group of five collision course in the Mountain West for about a month now and here we are.

These conference foes were in different divisions when Boise State joined the conference. The Broncos lead the series 9-3 all time and haven’t lost since 1976.

You can’t discuss Boise State without mentioning running back Ashton Jeanty. Firmly in the Heisman race, any day when Jeanty has less than 180 rush yards and two touchdowns is big news.

Despite finding itself amid controversy on the national scale in September, UNLV is piecing together another great season. The Rebels average just shy of 46 points per game with Hajj-Malik Williams at quarterback, who is equally difficult to defend on the ground as he is passing.

You’ll be in for a treat if you stay up late for this one.

2. #12 NOTRE DAME (6-1) vs #24 NAVY (6-0) (New Jersey)- ND -12.5, NOON ABC

Notre Dame dominates this series historically 80-13-1, winning 42-3 in Week 0 of 2023 over in Ireland.

I chalked this one up as a win for Notre Dame before the season started, but the Midshipmen are making me rethink that decision.

2024 is the year of the service academies in the AAC, and quarterback Blake Horvath has been a threat both throwing and running for Navy. Its closest win this season is in a 56-44 shootout against a Memphis team that sits at 6-1 currently.

Ever since it dropped a stinker in Week 2 to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame has dominated almost every opponent in its path. The Irish took down Haynes King-less Georgia Tech 31-13 in Atlanta last week.

Like my #3, this game has major implications on the playoff race outside of the power four. The group of five should only get one team in the playoff, but Notre Dame is every power four team’s worst enemy right now.

1. #8 LSU (6-1) @ #14 TEXAS A&M (6-1)- A&M -2.5, 7:30 PM ABC

This was an easy pick for #1 in Week 9.

Before Texas A&M joined the SEC in 2012, these two met annually off and on in the 20th century. LSU leads this series 36-23-3 but has dropped three straight in College Station, starting with the infamous 74-72 game in 2018.

The Aggies are one of the biggest surprises in the SEC in 2024.

Mike Elko’s bunch rebounded well after its loss to Notre Dame, defeating Florida, Arkansas, Missouri, and Mississippi State in the front end of SEC play. They run the ball well on offense and can get after the quarterback on defense.

LSU also took one on the chin Week 1 but has played well in SEC play. The offense isn’t as explosive as it was with Jayden Daniels, but the defense is no longer a liability.

Both a College Football Playoff appearance and SEC championship appearance are on the line in this game.