Tucker’s Top 10 College Football Matchups: Week 11
By Tucker Harlin
I’ll give myself a 7/10 for my performance last week. There were a couple of games, one in particular, that was competitive for about three quarters and turned into a blowout in the fourth quarter.
The top five games in this week are strong, but the fringe games are primarily trap games involving bowl eligibility stakes.
Here we go:
10. WEST VIRGINIA (4-4) @ CINCINNATI (5-3)- CIN -5, NOON FS1
The Mountaineers hold a 17-3-1 edge on their old Big East rivals.
The second year of the Scott Satterfield era in Cincinnati has been an up and down one, but it’s showing progress from his 3-9 record in Year 1. The Bearcats are coming off a loss to Colorado, but the Buffaloes may not be the frauds we once thought they were.
There’s not as much positivity in Morgantown as there is in Cincinnati.
After a season in which Neal Brown appeared to have coached himself off the hot seat, he’s right back on it at 4-4. The Mountaineers are off a bye week and a road win against a struggling Arizona team.
9. SYRACUSE (6-2) @ BOSTON COLLEGE (4-4)- BC -2, NOON CW
It’s a competitive series between the Eagles and Orange, but Syracuse leads 33-23.
Kyle McCord and the Orange got the disastrous performance in Pittsburgh out of their system with an overtime win against Virginia Tech last week. With its remaining schedule, Syracuse could be playing a 9-2 spoiler going into the season finale against Miami.
Boston College lost a lot of steam from the opening weekend once the world discovered Florida State was a fraud.
The Eagles have lost their last three ACC games, including one they led at halftime against Louisville at home. Bowl eligibility is what Boston College is playing for now, and Syracuse and North Carolina are their best opportunities to get to six wins on the year.
8. DUKE (6-3) @ NC STATE (5-4)- NCSU -3, 3:30 PM ACC NETWORK
This leg of Tobacco Road goes 42-37-5 in favor of the Blue Devils.
The first year of Manny Diaz’s tenure in Durham is telling of a nice rebound after Duke lost Mike Elko to Texas A&M, but the last month has been a harsh reality check.
The Blue Devils have lost three of their last four in ACC play, including a game they led by double digits in South Beach last week.
In many ways, 2024 has been disappointing for NC State. Starting quarterback Grayson McCall announced his retirement from football a few weeks ago, so backup C.J. Bailey has been baptized by fire.
The Wolf Pack has defeated both of the California ACC schools in the last three weeks and need one more win for bowl eligibility, something that would go a long way considering the circumstances at quarterback.
7. #9 BYU (8-0) @ UTAH (4-4)- BYU -4, 10:15 PM ESPN
The Cougars check into the first College Football Playoff rankings as the fourth seed, but the Utes lead the Holy War 59-32-4.
BYU is in sole possession of the lead in the Big 12, projecting as the last of the four autobids in the current field of 12 projections. The rebound from a 5-7 season has been impressive for Kalani Sitake’s bunch, but they can’t afford to slip up in their final four games.
Archrival Utah would love to play spoiler to the Cougars’ best season in four decades.
That said, the Utes have dropped four straight in Big 12 play to middle of the pack competition at best. But a similar play style to BYU could keep them in the game.
6. #23 CLEMSON (6-2) @ VIRGINIA TECH (5-4)- CLEM -6.5, 3:30 PM ESPN
Clemson leads Virginia Tech 23-12-1 all time and hasn’t lost since 2007.
How does Clemson respond on the road after a deflating home loss to Louisville? The Tigers were cruising through ACC play against some below average competition, but the first sign of a tough game was a loss.
Virginia Tech has been up, down, and all around this season.
All four of the Hokies’ losses are by a touchdown or less, and only one of those is against a ranked opponent. However, the loss to Rutgers in September is Virginia Tech’s only home loss, and a late afternoon game in Lane Stadium won’t be an easy task for the Tigers.
The power of Metallica isn’t easy to overcome.
5. OKLAHOMA (5-4) @ #24 MISSOURI (6-2)- OU -2.5, 7:45 SEC NETWORK
The Sooners dominate this series 67-24-5, but the two old Big 12 rivals haven’t met in 13 years.
I’m assuming the tilt in favor of Oklahoma with this spread is indicative of Brady Cook not playing. That Oklahoma defensive front can get after the quarterback, and Drew Pyne was miserable against both Auburn and Alabama.
This is a must win for Oklahoma if it wants to reach a bowl game. Alabama and LSU are the final two teams on the horizon for the Sooners, so taking care of business in Columbia is paramount.
4. #20 COLORADO (6-2) @ TEXAS TECH (6-3)- CU -3.5, 4 PM FOX
The series is split at five all time between these old and new Big 12 foes.
Much to the dismay of the haters, Colorado finds itself in the thick of the Big 12 championship race with Iowa State’s loss last week. Aside from Texas Tech, the Buffs don’t play a team with a winning record the rest of the way.
Texas Tech was the team that went into Ames and knocked off Texas Tech last week. Losses to TCU and Baylor are keeping them out of the race for a Big 12 championship, but the Red Raiders would love nothing more than to spoil Coach Prime’s best season in Boulder yet.
You’re going to get a tremendous matchup in Lubbock
3. SOUTH CAROLINA (5-3) @ VANDERBILT (6-3)- SC -3.5, 4:15 PM SEC NETWORK
South Carolina absolutely dominates the Commodores all time with a 29-4 record, the last loss coming in 2008. Never in a million years did I think this would make it into a Top 10, but here we are.
We always have to wonder which version of South Carolina we’ll get. Is it the one that struggled against Old Dominion and got stomped on by Ole Miss, or the one that just came up short at Alabama and blasted Texas A&M?
We know what to expect from Vanderbilt each week.
The Commodores play very disciplined football. The way you beat them is by playing mistake free football and trying your best to turn them over, much easier said than done.
I think the final result will hover right around the spread.
2. #3 GEORGIA (7-1) @ #16 OLE MISS (7-2)- UGA -2.5, 3:30 PM ABC
The Bulldogs dominate this series 33-12-1 and have won all but one meeting dating back to 1997.
Jaxson Dart pieced together a career day in the Rebels’ 63-31 win in Fayetteville last weekend.
He also got lit up by Georgia in Athens last season, so this will give him a chance for revenge. The Rebels are down in the playoff race right now, but they aren’t out.
Can Carson Beck keep the ball out of harm’s way? The lack of a Ladd McConkey or Brock Bowers had him in trouble last week, and he’s thrown no less than two picks in all but one SEC game
1. #11 ALABAMA (6-2) @ #15 LSU (6-2)- ALA -3, 7:30 PM ABC
Alabama has a 56-27-5 edge over the Bayou Bengals all time, but Jayden Daniels led LSU to an overtime win the last time they met in Baton Rouge.
The Crimson Tide is the lone two-loss team to make the initial 12-team field. If Alabama wins this weekend, it’s in the clear for a 10-2 season with struggling Oklahoma and Auburn teams down the stretch.
The Tigers are on the outside looking in with a pair of losses to a bad USC team and the second team out of the current model in Texas A&M.
After witnessing a disaster of an offense performance from him in Neyland Stadium in the afternoon, ‘m not confident in Jalen Milroe’s ability to guide the Tide to a road win at night.
