90/50/10- UTC Edition
Credit: University of Tennessee Athletics
By AJ Cook
It’s time for our weekly 90/50/10 posting!
Every week, we will pose an eventuality that we feel is 90% likely to happen, 50% likely to happen, and 10% likely to happen in Tennessee’s game that week.
This week, we have the mighty Mockingbirds (formerly Moccasins) of UTC making the short drive up I-75.
Here’s what we’re thinking:
90% CHANCE: 4 OR MORE PLAYERS SCORE A RUSHING TOUCHDOWN
It’s almost a sure thing that Nico Iamaleava and Dylan Sampson will record at least one rushing touchdown each. If either of them proved anything in backup duty last season, it was that they are dangerous with their legs and are threats to score any time they’re running the ball.
The SEC’s leading rushing offense from 2023 likely won’t miss a beat the rest of this season, but I digress.
It’s also a pretty safe bet that Josh Heupel will be keeping the offense relatively vanilla in what will hopefully just be a tune up game for Tennessee. Which means we can expect a lot of run plays, especially in the red zone.
Will Gaston Moore get some playing time in relief of Iamaleava? It seems likely.
Listed as a dual threat quarterback recruit back in 2020, Moore has played for Heupel for years now. It’s not out of the question he feels comfortable enough to find some space on a designed run or tuck it and run on a slow developing pass play with other backups.
Then there’s the platoon of players listed as “OR” on Tennessee’s running back depth chart: Cam Seldon, DeSean Bishop, Khalifa Keith, and Peyton Lewis.
It’s safe to assume that, given the chance, they will all be vying for the opportunity to separate themselves from one another and be the first alternative at running back behind Sampson.
50% CHANCE: AN UNDERCLASSMAN RECORDS AN INTERCEPTION
This is just playing the odds game.
Of the 10 players listed on the 2-deep for the five defensive back positions on the depth chart Tennessee released this week, half of them are underclassmen: Rickey Gibson III (Sophomore, Cornerback), Jermod McCoy (Sophomore, Cornerback), Jordan Matthews (Freshman, Cornerback), Christian Harrison (Redshirt Sophomore, STAR), and Boo Carter (Freshman, STAR).
UTC’s QB Saturday will be Chase Aropeus, who threw for 7 interceptions in 10 games last season.
But the UCLA transfer has never recorded an in game statistic against an FBS level opponent. Let alone tried to set his feet and throw with the likes of James Pearce Jr., Omari Thomas, and Dominic Bailey breathing down his neck.
Safe to say there will be turnovers. It’s just a matter of if an underclassman will be in the right spot for a pick.
10% CHANCE: A TIGHT END WILL HAVE A RECEIVING TOUCHDOWN
Predicting what the offense will look like in these glorified preseason games is always a little tricky.
How often will Tennessee be throwing the ball in general? Let alone how often will they throw the ball in the red zone with a tight end on the field?
McCallan Castles was second on the team last year with 5 receiving touchdowns as a tight end. The year before that, Princeton Fant was tied for fourth on the team with 3. So there’s a place in Josh Heupel’s offense for a receiving tight end.
There has been a lot of talk this offseason about who that guy will be for Tennessee this year.
Redshirt Freshman Ethan Davis was listed at the top of the depth chart this week, with transfers Holden Staes (Notre Dame) and Miles Kitselman (Alabama) right behind. All have given at least some suggestion that they could be assets for this offense this season.
But again, how often will Tennessee be throwing the ball in the red zone, where tight ends are most likely to score? Probably not often this week.
