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Thursday Picks: College Football Week 4

Last week:  7-3-1

Record to Date: 19-13-1

Arizona +3.5 vs. Utah (Fri 10:30)
Tennessee -28 vs. UMass (12:00)
Appy +4.5 over Wake (3:30)
Alabama -18.5 at Vanderbilt (3:30)
UNC +2.5 vs. Duke (3:30)
Boston Col. +34.5 at Clemson (3:30)
Michigan -10 vs. Purdue (4:00)
Navy -11.5 vs. Cincinnati (3:30)
Air Force +3.5 vs. SDSU (7:00)
Arkansas St. +5.5 at SMU (7:00)
UTEP +18 at NMSU (8:00)

Smart Home Fix Lock of the Week:

Appalachian State +4.5 vs. Wake Forest

So we’re 2-0 on locks of the week. This doesn’t seem like where the streak ends. We’ve got a home underdog that always sneaks up on unassuming prey. Further, we’ve got a head coach whose name is starting to be mentioned with Division I jobs. If down late, he’ll want that garbage time touchdown.

I Like It… I Like It A Lot:

Arizona +3.5 vs. Utah (Fri 10:30 ET)

Ok, another home underdog playing at an unconventional time. The more I watch college football the more I realize how important coaching is to keeping 18-to-22-year-olds disciplined. Perhaps it’s ignorant of me, fresh off a 3-9 year. But I’m a believer in Rich Rod.

Michigan -10 at Purdue

Three weeks in, I’m ready to say that Purdue might be overvalued as a DI program. That hasn’t been the case till now. They’re 3-0 against the spread. But the pendulum swings back and forth, often too violently.

North Carolina +2.5 vs. Duke

Home dog. Say no more.

Alabama -18.5 at Vanderbilt

Alabama has covered one game all season and as Nick Saban enters the SEC schedule, you bet he’ll want to make a statement. Further, Vandy has been asinine in it’s rather cavalier attitude towards a Saban-coached team.

Let it Ride:

Boston College +34.5 at Clemson

Over/Under in this game is 51.5. That means the oddsmakers expect a 43 to 8 final, roughly. I don’t expect Clemson to score that many. Foot off the gas game.

Navy -11.5 vs. Cincinnati

Money is coming in on Navy here against a Cincy team still riding its high off its game against Michigan. I trust that the oddsmakers know more than I do. So in a game that’s 11.5, I have to trust they’ll think it’s a two-touchdown game. But, if a spread is 10.5, I believe they have the game valued at 10 and anything more than 10 is a tough number to hit.

In other words, most games are decided by 7, 10, 14, 17, 20, 21. So you can segment the spreads out accordingly. An 11.5-point game hits the 14 mark for me, but that’s just me. I also stay on every 17 because, to me, it’s classified in a higher bracket.

Get a Life:

UTEP +18 at New Mexico State

Arkansas State +5.5 at SMU

Tennessee -28 vs. UMass

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