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Thursday Picks: College Football Week 3

Season record: 12-10. Last week: 6-6.

Amazingly, 38 games fell under last week, while 20 climbed over. That means this week we’re rooting for points, points, points.

Smart Home Fix Lock of the Week:

Kentucky +6.5 at South Carolina

For one thing, Carolina’s home field advantage is about as intimidating as Kentucky’s. Second, there’s a reason hype hung around UK all offseason.

Here you have the classic examples of one overvalued team (SCAR) and an undervalued road opponent (UK). The offense looks pedestrian. But I wholly expect UK’s defense to disrupt a Jake Bentley and lean on its offensive line to get enough points.

Send It:

Utah vs. San Jose State over 58.5

Again, we’re rooting for points. Two west-coast teams with multiple threats. Utah’s quarterbacks have thrown 69 passes through two games and San Jose State has three quarterbacks it likes to work in. Surely one of them can land in the endzone a few times.

 

Missouri -7.5 vs. Purdue

Many believe Drew Lock is a top-six quarterback in the SEC. I happen to subscribe to this theory. Neither of these teams play defense, allowing 130 total points through two games each. When it comes to an arms race, which it will with this week’s highest over/under at 78.0, I trust Lock.

Colorado State at Alabama over 53.5

Don’t ask me why the total on this is so low. Perhaps because Bama is favored by 28.5, some expect the team to ease up in the second half. I don’t.

Let It Ride:

Baylor +14 at Duke

Well, I broke a personal rule and bet on Northwestern against Duke last week and the Devils made me look foolish. Baylor’s certainly enjoyed a start nobody expected. They packed more scandal-to-atrocity into two weeks than Penn State managed to in five years.

That said, the spread on this game has already dropped two points. When it moves to 15.0, I’ll go in even more. That’s mostly because the number 15 is a tough one to reach. Irrespective of coaching, transfers and program decimation, I have a tough time believing Duke is more than two touchdowns better than BIG 12’s Baylor.

Illinois at USF over 56.5

Points. Points. Points. Find some of your own to go over on. Week three the offenses are starting to catch up to the defenses. I also like…

Texas Tech vs. Arizona State over 76

Because the total might actually be closer to 100.

Get a Life:

Kent State +14.5 at Marshall

Stanford -9.5 at San Diego State

New Mexico +15.5 at Boise State

LSU at Mississippi State under 51.5

 

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