What the Playoff Committee Rankings Should Look Like 11-12-24

By Jon Reed

The College Football Playoff Committee are set to reveal their second batch of rankings on Tuesday night. Here’s what they should look like.

1. Oregon

Those damn Ducks.

The undefeated record and win over Ohio State makes them a lock for number 1, however, I do wonder how we’d judge them if Will Howard didn’t inexplicably slide and run out the clock.

Would a 3 point win against Boise State be enough to still prop them up? Probably. It’s still more impressive than two of the other Big Ten schools I’m supposed to take seriously.

Maybe it’s the West Coast Bias, but the fact Oregon is the number one team in the country feels like a perfect relection for what this college football season is. Wide open. Oregon is a great team, and they very well may be champions when the smoke clears. But I think we can emphatically say that they don’t feel destined to be champions.

And that’s what makes this season feel so special.

2. Ohio State

The best loss of a season. A road win that we are all supposed to think highly of despite everyone knowing that Penn State isn’t anywhere near being an elite team.

I do feel obliged to point out just how thoroughly the Buckeyes dominated that Penn State team though. The scoreboard is a liar. That was a game that felt like a blowout, and it would have been had Will Howard not made a couple of really stupid decisions.

Two team write ups and two references to Will Howard doing something stupid. Can Ryan Day overcome bad quarterback play and actually break through this year? He couldn’t do it with CJ Stroud, soooooo probably not.

3. Tennessee

4. Texas

To me, this ranking is very close. I think both teams should get more credit than they almost certainly will for their wins against Michigan, NC State, and Oklahoma. Are any of those teams good? No. You can argue that they all three kind of suck.

But I believe in wins and losses mattering. Not in just the typical way, but also in the way that I think teams can be demoralized and derailed with embarrassing early season losses.

Do I think NC State’s season could have gone differently had the Vols not broken them in week 2 and sent them spiraling? I do. Same for Oklahoma. Had Oklahoma beaten Tennessee and not had their starting quarterback’s confidence completely shot leading to him being benched, do I think they could have been better this year? I do. Do I want to take a break from typing this piece to go and look at Cameron Brink’s SI Swimsuit photos? I do.

Be right back.

Michigan was probably cooked this year due to everything they lost, the fact their coach isn’t Jim Harbaugh equipped with their opponents’ stolen signs, and that they’ve had to play three quarterbacks this season. We all know what they say: “if you have three quarterbacks, you really have zero.”

With all of that being said, I don’t discredit that the Big House was rocking and that felt like a big time college football game when the two teams played in week 2. Texas throttled them. That should count. The same way the Vols completely dismantling two teams that everyone thought was good at the time of the game when they still had hope should count for them, too.

I gave Tennessee the nod because they won their big home game against Alabama and Texas got kind of punked in theirs by Georgia. And Tennessee’s shade of orange is much better. Shoutout Matthew McConaughey though.

5. BYU

They’re undefeated with a quality road win against SMU and a blowout home win over Kansas State, who everyone thought was really good at the time.

Should they have lost this past weekend at Utah? Maybe. But they didn’t, and they shouldn’t apologize for closely winning a rivalry game. They are three more wins away from claiming a spot in the playoffs and four wins away from securing a first round bye and locking up “team everyone wants to play in the second round” title.

Standing between them is Kansas, a road trip to Arizona State, and the season finale against Houston. Win all 3 and they won’t be denied.

6. Penn State

It would have been easy for Penn State to have a bit of a letdown hosting Washington on Saturday. To their credit, they didn’t. They dominated the Huskies 35-6.

This iteration of the James Franklin-led Nittany Lions seem to be more legitimate than all of his other versions, but they still seem to lack that extra gear to truly be a great team. They never **really** threatened Ohio State in that game, but we as college football fans should be used to that. It’s the same story every year.

They don’t have any good wins this year, but I do look at UCLA a little bit differently these days. And I do give them a little credit for showing heart and surviving against USC after falling down by a touchdown late.

With that being said, I don’t think any of us really think they belong in the inner circle of championship contenders.

7. Alabama

A win over Georgia paired with a blowout at LSU is the best combo of victories in the country so far. Add in a blowout over Missouri and a win over South Carolina, two teams that the committee will have ranked, and Alabama has shown it can beat “quality” teams.

No, they couldn’t beat the Vols, but there’s no shame in losing to such an elite team.

The loss at Vanderbilt, which may as well had been a neutral site, is one that is open to interpretation. The metrics don’t love Vanderbilt. Both ESPN’s FPI and SP+ rankings have Vanderbilt ranked lowly (39th and 61st). The Commodores are likely headed to a 6-6 finish, but, by the time that happens, the Crimson Tide may already be solidified as a championship level threat.

8. Ole Miss

Lane Kiffin finally got his second signature win of his coaching career after waiting for 13 years.

Ole Miss was pushed to the backburner of the college football discussion after gagging away the game against LSU, but they are back after dominating Georgia on Saturday. They get a bye week to gather themselves before a final push against Florida in the Swamp and the Egg Bowl. Win both and they will have a very good shot at hosting a playoff game.

The home loss to Kentucky remains the second worst loss of any top team, trailing only Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois.

9. Georgia

The two-score win at Texas is the best victory of the season. Their two losses are to two top ten teams. They still have a roster loaded with talent.

But let’s face it, this ranking is based on their previous 5 years of work.

Outside of beating Texas and a furious failed comeback in the fourth quarter at Alabama, these Bulldogs have been pretty mid. They barely escaped Kentucky, let Mississippi State hang around, and were losing to Florida until the Gators were suddenly down to their third string quarterback.

Georgia’s future will be decided Saturday against Tennessee.

10. Indiana

Yeah, they’re undefeated. So is Army.

Indiana survived against Midchigan despite struggling to get to twenty second-half yards. They should honestly be relieved to still be in my top ten. If they don’t show well next week in Columbus, they may not be.

As stated during the Penn State section, I do look at the blowout win at UCLA a little bit differently now than I have throughout the rest of the season. With that being said, can you really make the playoff if that’s your best win?

They cannot afford to be blown out by Ohio State.

11. Notre Dame

Worst loss of any contender, but they do have a road win at Texas A&M. That’s good enough to keep them in the field for now.

They have Virginia, Army and a trip to USC left this season. An 11-1 ranked Notre Dame isn’t getting left out even though they lost to NORTHERN ILLINOIS! A team that is 2-3 in the MAC!!!!!

12. SMU

A win at Louisville and a blowout of Pittsburgh is enough to get my twelfth and final spot. Miami really dropped the ball by finally losing.

Boise State is in line to get the final automatic spot.