Week 11 Rooting Guide for Tennessee Fans
By Jon Reed
The first weekend of November was a success for the Tennessee Volunteers.
Most importantly, they beat Kentucky despite getting shutout in the first quarter for the fourth straight game. The Vols scored 28 points over the next forty-five minutes as Nico Iamaleava looked like the five-star future first round pick quarterback that we have all been waiting to see.
And we got some of the results we needed from around the rest of the country.
South Carolina and that dork Shane Beamer dominated Texas A&M in the second half of their game. Louisville exposed Clemson for the frauds that they are. Texas Tech stunned Iowa State with a game-winning touchdown drive with only seconds remaining. Houston ended any chances of Kansas State getting an at-large bid.
After the dust settled, Tennessee came in ranked number 7 in the initial rankings by the playoff committee.
That’s all good news. The bad news is that Texas and Penn State were ranked ahead of the Vols because of their “good losses” despite not having any good wins. That puts pressure on Tennessee to a) keep winning and b) make sure they are competitive in the Georgia game next weekend.
But that’s next weekend. Let’s look at what Tennessee fans should be rooting for this weekend.
1) Tennessee (home) over Mississippi State
Duh. This feels like as much of a “can’t lose” game as possible. If the Vols were to stumble here, I don’t even think beating Georgia would save the Vols.
Must win. Can’t Lose.
Tennessee is favored by 23.5.
2) Georgia over Ole Miss (home)
We must root for Carson Beck on the road. It is not going to be fun, but it must be done.
If DJ Lagway didn’t go down against Georgia, I’m not sure we would’ve been in this situation as I think the Gators would have actually won the Cocktail Party. Alas, he went down, and the Bulldogs pulled away late.
Now, Vol fans should be rooting hard for Kirby Smart and the boys.
“Why?” – you.
It’s simple. A win for Ole Miss gives them a big shiny feather to stick in their hat and make the rest of the country look at them as a legitimate top level team. Their 24 point blowout at South Carolina is aging really well as a second quality win, too. Their two losses (remember, the committee loves themselves some close losses) would be by three points each. The Kentucky one is bad, but the overtime loss at LSU has a chance of looking like a good result.
A loss wouldn’t be detrimental to Georgia. It would just set them up for a do or die game against Tennessee the next week. I’m not sure that’s something we want to deal with. And honestly, I’m not even positive that a 9-3 Georgia with a win at Texas and against Clemson wouldn’t get some type of reprieve due to the fact their three losses would be against three highly ranked teams (@ Alabama, @ Ole Miss, and against an 11-1 Tennessee).
Still with me?
Add it all up and we should want Ole Miss to get their third loss and just go away. One less competitor for a playoff spot is a good thing.
Georgia is favored by 2.5.
3) Utah (home) over BYU
One of the absolute worst things that can happen for Tennessee and other potential playoff bubble teams is that an undefeated Miami and/or BYU gets to their conference championship game and loses. This would take both the ACC and Big 12 from solo-bid leagues to two-bid leagues, thus reducing the total number of available spots for other teams.
Iowa State lost last weekend. BYU losing the Holy War would almost assuredly lock the Big 12 into only getting team in.
The problem is Utah kinda sucks this year and are coming into this game on a four game losing streak. But they’re coming off of a bye. And it’s a rivalry game. Maybe Whittingham has a little magic.
If the Cougars win this one, they have just Kansas, @ Arizona State, and Houston standing between them and a playoff spot.
BYU* is favored by 3.5.
4) Alabama over LSU (home)
Who would have thought that Tennessee fans would be sitting in week 11 and barking like Dawgs and saying Roll Tide?
Gross.
But here we are. Both Alabama and LSU are 6-2 with a good win and a not so good loss. The winner of this one gets their signature win, and the loser gets eliminated.
The reason I’m rooting for Alabama is twofold: 1) to make Tennessee’s win against Alabama look even better and 2) preserve a head-to-head-win (hopeful) trump card in our back pocket. We can use that, of course, against Alabama. We cannot use it against LSU.
With a win against Alabama, the Tigers would cancel out Tennessee’s best win. In a battle of second best wins, LSU would then have Ole Miss (which could look really good if they were able to upset Georgia… another reason to root for Georgia) as its second best win, and either a road trip to South Carolina, who could be ranked shortly, or the Swamp as their third best. That seems like a problem for the Vols who, if they lose to Georgia next weekend, do not have a second unique quality win in comparison to LSU.
Florida? A 10-2 LSU would have a road win over them. Oklahoma? A 10-2 LSU would have a win over them, too. Add in a 24 point victory at Arkansas (I don’t need to remind you what Tennessee did at Arkansas), and that’s a better resume than what Heupel and the boys could offer at 10-2.
Go Alabama. And if that doesn’t work, we will be rooting hard for Florida next weekend.
Gross!
Alabama is favored by 3.
5) Michigan over Indiana (home)
There was a brief moment when Michigan State jumped out to a 10-0 lead over Indiana that I thought the clock had struck midnight for the Hoosiers. Then, they scored 47 unanswered points.
They’re good.
It’s annoying.
In the initial rankings, they were slotted right behind Tennessee at number 8. That means the committee views them pretty similarly. That argument they had on who should earn the final spot as a home playoff game host could turn into an argument over the last playoff spot in general if the Vols drop one at Georgia and Indiana loses at Ohio State.
A Wolverine win would change that math drastically.
Indiana is favored by 14.5.
6) Georgia Tech (home) over Miami
You have to respect Miami’s ability to play with fire all season without getting burnt. Could Georgia Tech finally make them pay?
Probably not! But Tennessee fans should root for it.
The Hurricanes are the last undefeated team in the ACC. Refer to the BYU section at number 3 to read about the doomsday scenario of an undefeated Miami losing in the conference championship to a team that otherwise wouldn’t have gotten in.
Miami taking an L here would be good.
Miami is favored by 11.5.
7) Vanderbilt (home) over South Carolina
Enemies must become allies.
The Vols may need Vanderbilt to be viewed as a quality opponent at the end of the season. We also don’t need South Carolina to be 9-3 and ranked in the top 20 (re: LSU and Ole Miss).
Anchor Down.
South Carolina is favored by 4.5.
8) Oklahoma over Missouri (home)
This one isn’t that important, but it would be nice if Oklahoma could find as many wins as possible. This is maybe their last realistic shot to get bowl eligible.
9) Others
· Florida over Texas (home and favored by 21.5)
· Florida State (LOL) over Notre Dame (home and favored by 25.5)
· Washington over Penn State (home and favored by 13.5)