Tucker’s Top 10: Week 6 College Football Matchups
Credit: Texas A&M Athletics
By Tucker Harlin
This is my first Top 10 for the month of October. I went about 6.5/10 last week, so that’s my number to beat this week.
Last week had several games that didn’t look like much on paper but played out in a far more interesting fashion than expected. I’m hoping that’s the case this week as only one of my matchups this week is between two ranked teams.
There are only two non conference matchups in this Top 10, and none of the conference matchups are what you might consider “tradition rivalries.”
Without further ado, here’s the Top 10 in ascending order.
10. RUTGERS (4-0) @ NEBRASKA (4-1)- NEB -6.5, 4 PM FS1
Up first we have a battle between two Big 10 teams.
The meeting in November of 1920 was the only one of their six meetings that wasn’t a conference game. Nebraska has won all six meetings, the most recent a 14-13 win in Piscataway two years ago.
Rutgers found its way into my Top 10 last week in its battle with Washington, a game that was absolutely deserving of a spot on the list. The Scarlet Knights survived 21-18 thanks to a missed field goal at the end of regulation.
Nebraska was not in my Top 10 last week, but its efforts in the later stages of its trip to Purdue gave it an important 28-10 bounceback win.
There are obvious stylistic differences between these squads. Rutgers will look to beat the Huskers on the ground with Kyle Monangai and with its defense. Nebraska makes a concerted effort to run as well, but Dylan Raiola will help it air the ball out more than anything Athan Kaliakmanis can give Rutgers.
If I were a betting man, the under looks enticing.
9. #11 USC (3-1) @ MINNESOTA (2-3)- USC -8, 7:30 PM BTN
At #9 we have a meeting between two incredibly traditional Big 10 foes in Minneapolis.
The Trojans are 6-1-1 all time with the last defeat coming at Minnesota in 1955. They most recently won both ends of a home and home in 2010-11.
Part of the reason why I’m drawn to this matchup is due to stylistic differences once again. P.J. Fleck has always been about the run in his tenure with the Gophers and USC is going to look to air it out with Miller Moss.
The main reason I’m interested in this game is because the last time the Trojans went on the road in the far north and played against a run heavy offense, it didn’t end well.
I definitely don’t think Minnesota is as talented as Michigan, but the style of football is something USC will have to get accustomed to in the Big 10.
8. #8 MIAMI (5-0) @ CAL (3-1)- MIA -10, 10:30 PM ESPN
From a very traditional Big 10 matchup to a very traditional ACC matchup we go.
The Hurricanes and Bears have split the four matchups they’ve played all time. Cal won the first meeting in 1964 and the 2008 Emerald Bowl while Miami won both ends of the home and home they played in 1989 and 1990.
Miami is one of the most exciting stories in the ACC this season, but it showed vulnerability last week against what’s not an amazing Virginia Tech team. Cam Ward, widely considered atop the Heisman race until last week, threw three picks against the Hokies. I’m also curious to see how the Hurricanes do in a conference game 3,000 miles away from Coral Gables.
Cal isn’t quite as explosive as the Hurricanes, opting to play slower on offense and let the defense do most of the work for Justin Wilcox. The online antics of Cal’s fan base is more exciting than the Golden Bears on the field.
College GameDay is making its first trip to Berkeley this weekend, so evidently they anticipate a great matchup. We may be in for late night fireworks.
7. SMU (4-1) @ #22 LOUISVILLE (3-1)- LOU -7, NOON ESPN
Well wouldn’t you know it, another classic ACC matchup!
These two met in a home and home in 1983 and 1984, the Mustangs winning both games decisively. These are the only meetings in their history.
SMU is on a bit of a heater these last two weeks. It outran (and ran off) its former head coach Sonny Dykes and TCU 66-42 in the Iron Skillet and embarrassed the woefully overrated Florida State Seminoles 42-16 last weekend.
Louisville comes into this game having taken a frustrating 31-24 loss to a ranked Notre Dame team last weekend.
If you like offense, you’ll watch this game. Jeff Brohm has always made an effort to air the ball out in his stops as a head coach, and Rhett Lashlee is doing the same at SMU.
I’m kind of surprised the total is at 56.5.
6. SYRACUSE (3-1) @ #25 UNLV (4-0) (Friday)- UNLV -7, 9 PM FS1
No, I’m not going to joke about a traditional conference matchup here because this isn’t one.
However, Fridays have at the very least delivered one terrific game a week so far, and this is by far the best looking Friday game on paper.
Even though he slipped up against Stanford two Fridays ago, I’m still of the belief Kyle McCord is one of the better quarterbacks in the ACC this season. Fran Brown has an opportunity to take the Orange to new heights in its time as an ACC member.
UNLV has very suddenly become one of the most intriguing stories in all of college football.
Starting quarterback Matt Sluka redshirted to enter the transfer portal over NIL disputes, an incident believed to be the first of its kind. Backup quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams casually threw for 182 yards and three touchdowns while running for another 119 yards and score in the Rebels’ 59-14 win over Fresno State last week.
The Rebels are now one of two ranked group of five teams in the country along with their Mountain West counterpart Boise State.
I’m hoping for more Friday magic between these two.
5. #10 MICHIGAN (4-1) @ WASHINGTON (3-2)- UW -2.5, 7:30 PM NBC
I was going to rank this very traditional Big 10 matchup lower and then I remembered it’s a national title rematch.
Michigan leads the series 9-5 all time, most of the games either in home and homes or Rose Bowls, or in some cases national titles.
We know Michigan is content to run the ball 45 times a game and let its defense do the rest. Alex Orji’s season high in pass yards is in the 60s currently, so a large deficit wouldn’t be ideal.
Washington can run the ball, but it most certainly has the advantage in the air with Will Rogers playing quarterback. However, Washington hasn’t scored over 35 points in a game this year and has maxed out at 24 points in conference play.
The other part that fascinates me about this one is how Michigan will adjust in a time change. We’ve seen two of the Big 10 teams on the west coast go down in trips east in the last two weeks, so we’ll learn if the effect is similar for teams on the east going to the west coast.
I’d imagine the under probably hits in Seattle, and I definitely won’t be watching this one because of the #4 game on this list.
4. #4 TENNESSEE (5-0) @ ARKANSAS (3-2)- TENN -13.5, 7:30 PM ABC
Tennessee is 13-6 all time against Arkansas with all but two meetings as SEC foes. The Razorbacks have won four of five against the Vols and each of the last three in Fayetteville, albeit against some pretty bad Vols teams.
Tennessee has a legitimate argument to make as the most complete team in college football right now. We knew what the offense was all about, but the defense has terrorized every opponent. They are off a bye and a 25-15 win at Oklahoma.
Arkansas lost in a hard fought Southwest Classic to Texas A&M 21-17 last week. We saw more of same issues from Taylen Green at quarterback with inaccuracy downfield and turnovers, but the more concerning part for Arkansas last week was the lack of a sound rush attack against Texas A&M.
If Tennessee’s defensive front overwhelms the Arkansas rush attack, it could be a long night for the Hogs.
From what we know, there’s less optimism from Razorback fans than Sooner fans two weeks ago.
3. UCF (3-1) @ FLORIDA (2-2)- UCF -2.5, 7:45 PM SEC NETWORK
These two Sunshine State programs have only met three times in their history.
Florida won the first two meetings when the Knights were still in FBS infancy, but the Knights took down the Gators 29-17 in the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl and creating a feeling of anger in the Florida fan base.
Billy Napier still resides on the hottest seat in the country, but he’s had two weeks to make Gator fans forget about it. Florida went to Starkville and outran a bad Mississippi State team 45-28 before heading into a bye.
UCF took a harsh reality check on the chin in the Bounce House against Coach Prime and Colorado in a 48-21 blowout loss. The Knights turned the ball over four times, two of which directly resulted in points off turnovers for the Buffs.
UCF was averaging just shy of 376 rush yards per game entering last week. R.J. Harvey and the Knights’ potent ground attack was held to just 177 on the ground by Colorado.
Both of these teams look pretty bad on defense against power four opponents so you can expect lots of points in the Swamp this weekend.
2. #12 OLE MISS (4-1) @ SOUTH CAROLINA (3-1)- MISS -9.5, 3:30 PM ESPN
This game was going to find its way into my Top 10 regardless of last week’s result, but it’s not #2 if Kentucky doesn’t leave Oxford with a win.
The near 10-point spread for Ole Miss feels generous ahead of the Juice Wells Classic. The Rebels let the Wildcats drag them through the mud in the 20-17 loss, something that appears to have cemented claims of the Rebels as frauds to begin the season.
Unfortunately for Ole Miss, defense and the run game is exactly how South Carolina wants to win games this season. The Gamecocks are off a bye and 50-7 win against Akron, and we can’t go without noting their 31-6 win over those same Kentucky Wildcats who beat Ole Miss.
The Rebels lead the series 9-8 all time, the last game a 59-42 track meet in Oxford during the COVID season with the Rebels coming out on top. However, this is the first trip to Columbia for Ole Miss in 15 years, the last ending in a 16-10 loss for the Rebels.
I said it earlier but the spread feels too large for this game. It’s more of a coin flip than what the spread indicates.
1. #9 MISSOURI (4-0) @ #25 TEXAS A&M (4-1)- A&M -2.5, NOON ABC
#1 on my list is another I figured could find its way into my Top 10 before the season started, but the start of the season is what has me putting this at the very top.
Texas A&M leads 9-7 all time against Mizzou, and these two have been together in both the Big 12 and SEC. The Tigers have won seven of the last 10 dating back to 2002, but the Aggies most recently won 35-14 in CoMo following a miraculous win over Alabama in 2021.
Mizzou is unbeaten, but its last two contests before the bye week were closer than it would have liked. The Tigers fought back from an early deficit to take down Boston College 27-21 in Week 3. They held off Vanderbilt 30-27 in two overtimes, a team who lost to Georgia State the week prior.
Texas A&M’s lone loss through a month is to defensive juggernaut Notre Dame in the first weekend. The Aggies have started SEC play with wins away from College Station over Florida and Arkansas.
The Aggies aren’t built to outrun their opponents, so the defense and run game are paramount to dragging the Tigers into the mud. This is Missouri’s first game in a venue not called Faurot Field in 2024, shaping this one up as its toughest test of the year.
Brady Cook and the Tigers offense wasn’t playing mistake free football against Murray State and Buffalo while Texas A&M’s two best wins this season were made possible in large part by turnovers.
I’ll definitely have this game on at noon.
