Tucker’s Top 10 College Football Matchups: Week 10
By Tucker Harlin
This is my first Top 10 of November. I improved slightly from Week 8 to Week 9 with a 4.5/10, scoring partial credit for Penn State at Wisconsin.
Only four ranked teams play one another this weekend, so the hope is for chaos across the country.
10. TCU (5-3) @ BAYLOR (4-4)- BU -3, 8 PM ESPN2
They say Baylor is the real Christian school in Texas while TCU is “more Texas than Christian.” The Horned Frogs lead this competitive series 59-53-7 all time.
Neither of these teams are anything special this season, but they’ve played some humdingers over the years.
Robert Griffin III introduced himself to the college football universe in Baylor’s 50-48 win to open the 2011 season. The Bears won 61-58 back in 2014, and TCU needed a last second field goal in 2022 to reach the Big 12 championship against a middling Baylor team.
The fact the Bears and Frogs always play each other close and that both have shown they can put up some points this year has me drawn to this matchup.
9. #13 INDIANA (8-0) @ MICHIGAN STATE (4-4)- IU -7.5, 8 PM PEACOCK
Sparty dominates this Big 10 series 50-18-2 all time, but the Spartans and Hoosiers have split the last four meetings.
Indiana has taken the Cig 10 by storm this season, winning its first eight with a ridiculously strong offensive output. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke is dealing with a thumb problem, but it sounds as if he’s trending toward playing Saturday.
Michigan State is understandably not receiving much attention at 4-4, but one thing I’ve learned about Jonathan Smith as a coach is that he likes flying under the radar. The Spartans took down Iowa 32-20 two weeks ago, so a trap game isn’t out of the question here.
I like Indiana to get a win in East Lansing, but it needs to be on guard.
8. TEXAS TECH (5-3) @ #11 IOWA STATE (7-0)- ISU -13.5, 3:30 PM ESPN
The Red Raiders are 13-8 against the Cyclones and have won the last two meetings in 2021 and 2022.
I guess I’m just banking on the fact Texas Tech can put up points for a rationale to make this as a Top 10 game this week. Quarterback Behren Morton is trending toward playing after suffering a shoulder injury last week.
I also feel like Iowa State has to lose somewhere. Not that Matt Campbell, Rocco Becht, and the Cyclones are a fraudulent bunch, but Iowa State is like the Big 12 version of a Mississippi State or Kentucky that just doesn’t have a winning culture historically.
This should be a win for the Cyclones in Jack Trice Stadium, but their time of losing is coming eventually.
7. LOUISVILLE (5-3) @ #11 CLEMSON (6-1)- CLEM -10.5, 7:30 PM ESPN
Clemson has never lost to Louisville in eight matchups dating back to 2014.
The Tigers have dominated in ACC play to this point, but don’t obsess yourself with wins over weak NC State, Wake Forest, and Stanford teams. This is going to play out as Clemson’s toughest test since Georgia.
Louisville has done its best to rise to the occasion against difficult competition, but it’s fallen short three times. Each of the losses to Notre Dame, SMU, and Miami were by a touchdown.
Knowing the Cardinals have already failed once in a hostile environment, I can’t pick them to win in ACC Death Valley at night.
6. DUKE (6-2) @ #5 MIAMI (8-0)- MIA -21.5, NOON ABC
Miami leads the series 15-5, but Duke won 45-21 in South Beach back in 2022, the last time they met.
There are a couple of reasons why I have this game ranked at #6 over some of the others.
For one, both of these teams have found themselves in two or more close games lately. Miami needed to outrun opponents like Virginia Tech, Cal, and Louisville while Duke won a close game against Florida State and gave SMU all it could handle last week.
The other reason has to do with one person: Manny Diaz.
Diaz couldn’t perform under the spotlight at Miami, leading to a situation in which the university hired Mario Cristobal before it fired Diaz. Diaz is now 6-2 at Duke and seeking revenge for what happened at the end of 2021.
21.5 is too large of a spread.
5. FLORIDA (4-3) vs #2 GEORGIA (6-1)- UGA -16.5, 3:30 PM ABC
Georgia leads the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party 55-44-2 and Kirby Smart has won six of eight in the rivalry as a coach.
Aside from the rivalry, what draws me to this matchup is the way Florida played with D.J. Lagway calling the shots against Kentucky.
Was Graham Mertz tearing his ACL freeing for the offense? Lagway went out and hit multiple throws for chunk plays against the Wildcats while Jadan Baugh ran for five touchdowns
Carson Beck certainly isn’t playing like a Top 10 NFL draft pick for Georgia. The Bulldogs have no problem winning, but many of the victories are closer than desired.
The Bulldogs have won each of the last three meetings by no less than 22 points against the Gators. We’ll see if it happens again.
4. #18 PITTSBURGH (7-0) @ #20 SMU (7-1)- SMU -7.5, 8 PM ACC NETWORK
The Mustangs are 3-2-1 against the Panthers all time, most recently winning 28-6 in the 2011 BBVA Compass Bowl at Legion Field in Birmingham.
It’s incredibly difficult to replicate Pittsburgh’s 41-13 win over Syracuse from last Thursday. The Panthers picked Kyle McCord off five times, three of which were returned for touchdowns.
SMU wants to outrun its opponents with quarterback Kevin Jennings. The Mustangs showcased resilience in their narrow escapes against both Louisville and Duke on the road.
This matchup is pivotal in the ACC title race. It’s most definitely a playoff elimination game.
3. #19 OLE MISS (6-2) @ ARKANSAS (5-3)- MISS -7, NOON ESPN
In addition to a 38-30-1 series lead, Arkansas has never lost to Ole Miss in Fayetteville in a season in which it has won more than six games.
The Rebels have lost a lot of steam over the last month of the season. The loss to Kentucky is aging like milk while a defeat at LSU and ugly home win over a bad Oklahoma team did nothing to earn Lane Kiffin any home night games.
Arkansas is up and down and all around in SEC play. One week after losing 34-10 at home, it went on the road and blasted a bad Mississippi State team 58-25.
I really don’t like the way this game is setting up for Ole Miss.
2. #10 TEXAS A&M (7-1) @ SOUTH CAROLINA (4-3)- A&M -2.5, 7:30 PM ABC
Texas A&M has won nine of the 10 meetings, the only loss when it was at its very worst since joining the SEC in 2022.
The question around this game is about Aggies come out after an emotional home win. Marcel Reed and the Texas A&M run game came out and smashed LSU in the second half, but the Tigers don’t field a defense like the one they field in Williams-Brice Stadium.
Another important question is which version of South Carolina comes out for this matchup.
Do we see the version that held tight with LSU and blasted Kentucky and Oklahoma or the version that was destroyed at home by Ole Miss?
Texas A&M is in the driver’s seat for an SEC championship game appearance, but this is one of two big hurdles it must overcome to get there.
1. #4 OHIO STATE (6-1) @ #3 PENN STATE (7-0)- OSU -3.5, NOON FOX
This was an easy choice for #1 in Week 10.
Ohio State hasn’t lost this game since the blocked field goal attempt in 2016 and is 24-14 all time against Penn State.
Part of the trouble for Penn State ahead of this matchup is Drew Allar’s injury status as he left the win at Wisconsin early. Additionally, we all know how James Franklin operates at this point and know he’s destined for at least one loss in a big game annually.
Ryan Day’s history in big games isn’t squeaky clean either. The Buckeyes haven’t lost to the Nittany Lions under Day’s direction, but a loss at Oregon last month makes you wonder if they don’t struggle again in a loud road environment.
At most, this is a Big 10 championship elimination game. The committee will have a hard time leaving either one of these teams out of the playoff with the attached name brand.
