Three Things Tennessee Must Do to Beat Florida
By Tucker Harlin
#8 Tennessee (4-1, 1-1) are set to host Florida (3-2, 1-1) in Neyland Stadium Saturday.
The Vols have only won two of the last 19 against the Gators, a trend the Vols need to find a way around in order to continue a quest for a College Football Playoff berth.
Most of the three things I believe Tennessee needs to do to win this week are rooted in shortcomings in Fayetteville, although some were problems in the Swamp last season that led to a loss.
1. REDISCOVER THE OFFENSE
Tennessee should have no issue airing out the football if it’s as healthy as availability reports indicate.
We know this team loves to run the ball with Dylan Sampson. So do its opponents.
What made this offense so scary in 2021 and 2022 was the ability to use the middle of the field and take shots down field through the air with its cast of receivers.
The expectation this season was for the offense to return to closer form to those offenses, but the Vols are back to the screening, dinking, and dunking ways of the 2023 offense that was supposed to be the outlier in the Heupel era.
This offense isn’t even running outside the tackles, something my high school’s offense could do with ease in addition to the frequent tunnel screens it ran.
As we work our way deeper into October, it feels like now or never for the wheels to start turning on offense.
2. CREATE CHAOS AROUND THE QUARTERBACKS
Graham Mertz has played two of every three possessions for Florida over the last three games while D.J. Lagway plays the other possession. The two have combined for a completion percentage just shy of 90% in the wins over Mississippi State and UCF.
Notice how I said Mississippi State and UCF.
The completion percentage against a strong Texas A&M defense was hovering closer to 64% and the two combined for three interceptions in the 33-20 loss.
The strategy for Mertz against the Vols last season was to get the ball out as quickly as possible to a receiver. I anticipate a similar strategy to counter a physical defensive front, especially now that it looks like the Gators have their top receivers back in the lineup.
Tennessee has to find a way to use the alternating possessions between quarterbacks to their advantage.
3. GET THE DEFENSE OFF THE FIELD IN THE FIRST QUARTER
When I think about Tennessee’s five losses between the start of last season and right now, something stands out in three of them: long first quarter drives by the opponent.
Florida took 7:26 off the clock on its opening drive in the 29-16 loss in the Swamp last season. Missouri used 10:55 on its second possession of the 36-7 loss at Faurot Field last year.
Arkansas ate 9:12 off the clock on the opening drive in an ugly 19-14 loss in Fayetteville last year.
As evidenced both by the opening drive in last season’s game and the opening drive in the Gators’ win over UCF last week, Billy Napier’s strategy of keep away is one he’ll employ against the Vols this season.
The Gators tried it in 2022, but the Vols offense was too good to get derailed by long possessions that season. It wasn’t good enough to do that in Gainesville last season as the Gators got what they wished for.
Not only can long drives hamper the momentum of fast-paced offense on the other end, but they create fatigue for a defense as the game wears on.
A situation the Vols cannot afford to find themselves in again.
