THE DAY AFTER – BYE WEEK OBSERVATIONS THAT SHOULD MATTER TO VOL FANS
Sure, Vol Nation didn’t have a game to sweat out this weekend, which I have to say is kind of a liberating feeling every once and awhile. Don’t get me wrong; I’m there for a Big Orange game week every single time...but it’s kind of like one of those days when you have so much rain outside that you can’t really do much, and it forces you to stay in and focus on other things. Not what you’d want on the regular, but nice to have here and there.
That said, even with that bye week for Tennessee, I watched, and paid attention to A LOT of College Football this weekend!
Because...there were many, many teams who were playing that had College Football Playoff ambitions, teams that are in the same consideration set as Tennessee. In this new world of qualifying for the inaugural Field of 12...and whatever the criteria’s really going to be to make that field, there are absolutely no off weeks. Like I’ve said time and time again, in this era, EVERY week is like its’ own mini-season.
So without further adieu, let’s take a tour around the SEC and beyond, and recap what happened yesterday and last night:
Texas has gone from the undisputed #1 team in the country to “there are some concerns about Texas and their CFP chances” in about 8 days time! The Longhorns looked like they were going to be ok against Vanderbilt in Nashville on Saturday, leading 24-10 in the 3rd, yet with only one minute left in the game, it was a slim 3-point lead for Texas, and Vandy was only a successful onside kick away from having a chance to tie or even win. Alas, Texas recovers the on-sider, and holds on for a 27-24 win, so...crisis averted...all good. But is it? Hook’em’s ranked team wins are Michigan, Oklahoma, and now Vanderbilt. Yeah...not exactly “signature” stuff, and their remaining games are against Florida, Arkansas, and Kentucky., and while those are all probable wins, they then have to wrap the season in College Station against suddenly formidable Texas A&M. So the question is, given the soft caliber of their regular season schedule, will a loss at A&M and thus a 10-2 record still be enough for Sark & Co. to make the playoffs? Crazy to ask I know, but the national perception is very different all of a sudden when it comes to Texas.
And about that other Texas school...y’all need to be mindful of Texas A&M now. Very, very mindful! After that season opening loss to Notre Dame, the Aggies are now 7-1 and the only remaining undefeated in conference play, nearly assuring them a spot in the SEC Championship game...that is if they take care of their business. A&M was scuffling a bit Saturday night against LSU, but in a “tale of two halves” script right out of Tennessee’s playbook last week against Alabama, something changed in the second half for Gig’em. That “something” was at the Quarterback position, as Mike Elko inserted Freshman Marcel Reed at QB to replace an ineffective Connor Weigman, and the results...were spectacular! Reed only threw two passes, but completed both of them for 70 yards, good enough to give him a 394 QBR, but that really wasn’t the story. It was how Marcel impacted the game with his legs. 9 carries for 62 yards and 3 tuddy’s, but more importantly, it opened up the entire rushing game for A&M, who outscored the Tigers 31-6 in the second half. Utter domination by the Aggies, and Reed has cemented himself into the role of QB1 for Elko’s guys...which is a problem...for all of the other teams! A&M’s remaining schedule is at South Carolina, which is not a gimme by any stretch, at home versus New Mexico State, at Auburn, and then at home to Texas. It’s not crazy to say this bunch is on their way to an 11-1 record...10-2 being the likely worst-case scenario, and it feels like a slot in the Field of 12 for Texas A&M is more secure than ever now.
The team that the Aggies rolled...that would be LSU, is faced with a bit of existential question. And that is: Is Brian Kelly the guy who can take you to the promised land? I mean, how often have we seen it in these past few years under Kelly? The Tigers have a somewhat inexplicable loss early in the season and then get rolling and finish with a strong record, but always just outside the periphery of greatness, which is a bit of a head-scratcher given the mother-lode of talent the Bayou Bengals typically have. Last night, they lost one...again, pretty inexplicably, but later in the season...and it’s likely gonna cost them. They were the #8 team in the country, felt like a lock for the playoffs on Friday, and in the first half in College Station, they looked like the better team, leading A&M 17-7 at half. But Elko made adjustments...boy did he ever, and LSU...didn’t. They relied on a passing game that garnered over 400 yards, but did nothing on the ground (24 yards total rushing). A&M buckled down on pass defense and LSU didn’t adapt. The Tigers also absolutely could not stop Marcel Reed, who ran all over the field like it was a backyard game at Kile Field.
In summary, LSU absorbs a crushing loss, and now needs to win out against Alabama, Florida, Vandy, and Oklahoma if they want to stay in the CFP convo. It all shapes up for what is an incredibly critical month ahead for Brian Kelly and the ‘fam-a-lay” in Baton Rouge.
Alabama bounced back rather nicely from their loss to the Vols with a 34-0 trouncing of Missouri. For Bama, this was really a bit of a must-win...guess they all are now really, but it showed that Kalen DeBoer and the Tide had what it took to get up off the mat. As for Mizzou, it’s a second and likely final necessary affirmation that the Tigers really weren’t who the pollsters thought they were at the start of the season. In their two most meaningful games this season (A&M and now Alabama), Drink’s crew has lost by a combined score of 75-10. They’re 6-2 with games remaining against Oklahoma, South Carolina, Mississippi St., and Arkansas. Even if they win out, it seems pretty certain that Missouri’s 10-2 record will have too much hair on it to qualify for the Field of 12. Enjoy standing on business at the ReliaQuest Bowl Eli...
Ole Miss is hanging on by a thread in terms of their College Football playoff chances, but they stay alive for now after yesterday’s 26-14 win over Oklahoma. The Sooners actually lead this one at half 14-10, before the Kiffins focused up and took care of business in the 2nd half. For Ole Miss, it really comes down to the Nov. 9 game against Georgia in Oxford...the Rebels have to win that game...and all of their others, to have any shot at the playoffs.
Outside the SEC, teams that Vol fans need to pay attention to are undefeated Indiana, as well as unblemished Miami, BYU, and Iowa St. While the two Big 12 teams will probably dwindle to one as far as a Big 12 playoff bid, and Miami may be joined by Clemson as ACC playoff representatives, Indiana is the one to really keep an eye on. At 8-0, it sure feels like the Hoosiers could be headed to an 11-1 record at worst, becoming a more likely at-large bid than we ever expected. BYU and Miami each logged wins on Saturday as well to add to their playoff narrative. And we can’t forget Notre Dame, who at 7-1 is rolling after crushing a good Navy team 51-14. The Irish have a remaining schedule that is in a word, manageable. Florida St., Virginia, and a dangerous Army team, before traveling to the west coast to play USC. If the Irish win out, they’re in the dance based on brand equity alone. But if they lose one of those games, coupling that with the Northern Illinois debacle from earlier in the season, then the Notre Dame would probably be on the outside looking in. In short, we need some losses from ALL of the teams in this cluster outside the SEC.
And what does all of this mean for Tennessee? Well, as we’ve been saying for weeks now, if the Vols can just go and take care of business for the next 5 weeks, almost none of this activity swirling around us really matters...Tennessee will be in the Field of 12. And that “business” resumes this weekend on Saturday night in Neyland, with a Kentucky team coming to town that’s getting worse by the week...so bad that ESPN just flexed our game DOWN from a national TV audience on ABC to the SEC Network. Wherever it’s televised, it’s clearly there for the Vols... a chance to burn the boats and seize the opportunity...time to resume the climb!
