Last Week: 6-3-1

Season Record: 92-79-7

Smart Home Fix Lock of the Week:

SMU -5 vs. Louisiana Tech (Wednesday 8:00)

Ok, here’s some data. Over the last seven seasons there have been 26 bowl games where a team’s coach has either been fired/left for another position. SMU is in that spot. In those games, the favorite has won 65% of the games.

Those games have also gone under nearly 60% of the time.

Come Bowling With Me:

Appalachian State +7.5 vs. Toledo (Saturday 7:00)

Perennially undervalued Appalachian State will, again, surprise folks. They are a program that did not lose its head coach. Those also fare well during bowl season.

UAB +7.5 vs. Ohio (Friday 12:30)

Talk about the underdog of the year. UAB didn’t even have a football program last season. Now their players get to play in the Bahamas? Look for Bill Clark and his team to finish the surprising year in surprising fashion.

Army +6 vs. SDSU (Saturday 3:30)

Underdogs usually have a better go of bowls early on. As the bowl schedule continues, more favorites use their athletes and superior coaches to take over. Over the past two years, underdogs have a slight overall advantage in wins ATS.

Wyoming -1 vs. Central Michigan (Thursday 4:00)

But I expect this year to tilt more towards the favorites.

Mr. Goodell’s National Football League

Indianapolis +14 at Baltimore (Saturday 4:30)

If this doesn’t make sense, then reconsider. The line is appropriate. But Baltimore, Buffalo and Tennessee are all vying for the same playoff spots. Some upsets are bound to happen.

Let the record show, Baltimore should win its two remaining games. But might run into more trouble than thought.

New Orleans vs. Atlanta over 53.0 (Sunday 1:00)

Neither team put up startling numbers on offense like in years past. But both gearing up for a playoff run.

Buffalo at New England over 47.0 (Sunday 1:00)

Don’t overthink it. Brady and New England kept relatively in check for two weeks in a row? Should’ve lost two in a row? Don’t count on three.

Green Bay +1.5 vs. Minnesota (Saturday 8:30)

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