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Smart Home Picks: College Football Week Nine

Last Week: 9-5-3

Season Record: 48-40-4

Smart Home Fix Locks of the Week (6-3):

Ball State +25.5 vs. Toledo

Here we have a conference matchup on a Thursday night where the home team is 24.5 underdogs. It’s like all the stars and grains of sand aligned. Home dog covers in a little MACTION BABY.

Oklahoma -20 vs. Texas Tech

Quietly, Oklahoma has an outside shot at still making the College Football Playoff. I happen to believe that TCU will represent the BIG 12 (along with Penn State, Alabama and Georgia,) but Baker Mayfield won’t let his senior season go quietly. If OU wants a shot at the CFP, they’re going to need blowout conference wins. No letting up.

Come Fly with Me:

Western Kentucky +7 vs. FAU

We always look for overvalued teams here. And finally, because of Lane Kiffin and a hot start to the season and more Lane Kiffin, the oddsmakers have overplayed FAU. As of Wednesday, 85% of the bets have come in on FAU. The PEOPLE LOVE LANE. Smart bettors will approach with caution.

Memphis -11 vs. Tulane

Think about pairing this with the over. Memphis has scored 30 or more points in its last six games. No reason for Riley Ferguson to let up now, he’s got the Nathan Peterman ex-Tennessee, now-NFL dream on his mind.

Memphis’ defense has also allowed 27 or more points in each of its last six… so yeah, think about the over.

UNC +20 vs. Miami

Oh boy, here you have a classic trap game. Miami beginning to feel itself a little too much and looking ahead on the schedule to see ranked Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. This is the classic Mark Richt game he lost to Florida in 2014, Missouri and Vanderbilt in 2013, unranked Tennessee in 2007 and Vandy in 2006.

Miami wins, for the record, but they won’t cover.

USC -3.5 vs. Arizona State

Two teams trending in the opposite direction, USC sputtering while Arizona State has pulled off two double-digit upsets in the last two weeks. That boat runs out of steam at some point. Both correct to the norm.

Send it:

Colorado -3.5 vs. Cal

Another overcorrection as Cal earns a big 16.5-point upset and pushes Arizona to a one-point game. Colorado gets shut out at home. And assuming that doesn’t start a touchdown-less streak of 14 quarters, Colorado should move back towards the mean.

Baylor +7.5 vs. Texas

Well, I whiffed on Texas last week who got help from Oklahoma State’s coaching malpractice at home. Even though Baylor’s record is that of a program actually returning from the death penalty, they’ll give Tom Herman fits.

Florida State -4 at Boston College

Hardest correction of the week. Florida State wanted to piece it together at times against Louisville but couldn’t for four quarters.

You have to now assume that Florida State’s biggest opponent isn’t the other team so much as it is overall apathy. They’re not really playing for Jimbo Fisher’s job, he’s too safe for that. But if they want to make something of their time at school, it’s time to sack up and win the games they should.

Rutgers +24 at Michigan

Really this will be a train wreck. I’m not so wrapped up in the Jim Harbaugh conversation as everybody else, but how the hell can a guy not have a quarterback?

Who Cares? We’re Rich:

They’ve got to cover one of these games, so…

Tennessee +5 @ Kentucky

Oregon +3.5 vs. Utah

New Mexico State +3 vs. Arkansas State


Read em and weep. One from each time slot until the Sunday Scaries set in.

Ravens -3 vs. Dolphins (THURS)

Falcons -4.5 @ Jets (1 pm)

Redskins +2.5 vs. Cowboys (4:25 pm)

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