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NCAA Tournament: A Game-By-Game Analytical Approach

The most chaotic, seemingly unpredictable, yet the best sporting event of the year has returned. The NCAA Tournament kicks off today. Much like the year’s article, I use analytics from both KenPom and Bart Torvik, two leaders in the vast world of College Basketball analytics. I’ll breakdown each first-round matchup and potential matchup all the way to the National Championship game. Last year’s bracket went 39-24 overall. It went 24/32 correct in the 1st round, 7/16 in 2nd round, 3/8 in Sweet Sixteen, 3/4 in Elite Eight, 2/2 predicting the National Championship participants. Finally, it predicted Gonzaga over Baylor, where ultimately Baylor bested Gonzaga.

adjEM (KenPom) / BARTHAG (Torvik): These metrics measure the team’s likelihood of beating the average Division-1 team. I will be including a table in each matchup showing the respective team’s ranking in this metric.

Adjusted Offensive/Defensive Efficiency (KenPom): This metric measures the team’s points scored per 100 possessions and points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for the opponent.

eFG% (Effective field-goal percentage): This metric adjusts that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal.

TO% (Turnover rate): This is an estimate of turnovers per 100 possessions.

FTR (Free throw rate): This measures both how often a team gets to the line and their free throw shooting performance. Offensively, a high FTR is desired.

OREB% (Rebound rate): This measures how effective a team is at gaining possession after a missed field goal or free throw. Offensively, a high REB% is desired.

Hottest/Coldest teams: These are the teams playing above (hot) or below (cold) their season level over the last 30 days, according to Bart Torvik’s metrics.

Must Watch: Think of this as a Rotten Tomatoes for March Madness! A score of 1 means you can skip it, if you don’t have a wager on it or a favorite team involved. A score of 2/3 means you should likely tune in for the 1st-half at the very least. However, a score of 4 or 5 means you should absolutely put everything to the side and be glued to your T.V. for these matchups.

Now, let’s get the party started.

FIRST FOUR

Wright State (16) vs. Bryant (16)

TORVIK
Wright State (196th)
Bryant (172nd)
KENPOM
Wright State (182nd)
Bryant (183rd)

*Must Watch: 2.5/5

PREDICTION

In their conference tournament, Wright State tightened things up, which helped them punch their ticket as they pulled a couple of upsets to win the Horizon. However, the law of averages tells us what goes up must come down. The metrics back, Bryant, and so will I. Torvik gives Bryant a 54% chance of winning, while KenPom has it as a complete 50/50 split.

Rutgers (11) vs. Notre Dame (11)

-TORVIK
Rutgers (76th)
Notre Dame (40th)

-KENPOM
Rutgers (74th)
Notre Dame (52nd)

*Must Watch: 3.5/5

PREDICTION

Notre Dame’s defense is built around forcing teams into midrange jump shots, which contests them very well. Conversely, Rutgers shoots midrange two’s at a high rate (32% share of shots) and don’t connect on them very efficiently as they rank in the bottom half of the nation in mid-range FG%. Rutgers doesn’t want to become one-dimensional and rely on Ron Harper, who is the only player for the Scarlet Knights who shoots better than 35% from behind the arc. The matchup favors The Irish, and the metrics do as well. KenPom gives Notre Dame a 56% of moving on, while Torvik gives them a 60%.

WEST REGION

Hottest teams: Vermont, Davidson, New Mexico State
Coldest teams: Michigan State, Alabama, Montana State

Gonzaga (1) vs. Georgia State (16)

-TORVIK
Gonzaga (1st)
Georgia State (136th)
-KENPOM
Gonzaga (1st)
Georgia State (151st)

*Must Watch: 1.5/5

PREDICTION
Just like last season, Gonzaga is an analytics darling. Tune in only if you want to get a good look at what is 52.8% (no, not a typo) likely to be a Final Four team.

Boise State (8) vs. Memphis (9)

-TORVIK
Boise State (30th)
Memphis (20th)
-KENPOM
Boise State (26th)
Memphis (28th)

*Must Watch: 4.5/5

PREDICTION
It bodes well for the Tigers that Memphis has started looking and playing like the team everyone thought they would be. History is on their side, as favorites usually win between 8/9 seeds. I’ll take the red hot Tigers, along with Torvik (56%), and against KenPom (51% Boise State).

UCONN (5) vs. New Mexico State (12)

-TORVIK
UCONN (22nd)
New Mexico State (84th)
-KENPOM
UCONN (18th)
New Mexico State (81st)

*Must Watch: 3/5

PREDICTION

New Mexico State has the 2nd-best chance of the 12-seeds to knock off a 5-seed in this year’s field. That being said, I’ll be looking at a different double digit seed to get an upset in the first round in this region. Torvik has UCONN at 72%, and KenPom gives the Huskies a 71% chance of winning.

Arkansas (4) vs. Vermont (13)

-TORVIK
Arkansas (18th)
Vermont (65th)
-KENPOM
Arkansas (20th)
Vermont (59th)

*Must Watch: 4/5

PREDICTION

13-seeds with at least a 30% chance of victory are above .500 in win percentage. Last year they were 2-0 as Ohio, and North Texas both pulled it off while having a >30% chance of winning. Lastly, Vermont ranks in the top-10 percentile for shot-selection and shot-taking. Conversely, Arkansas takes good shots but ranks as being bad shot makers. This isn’t a Razorbacks team that will make a deep run. I’ll take the Catamounts in what looks to be a favorable matchup where history is on their side. Torvik- 32%, KenPom- 36%.

Alabama (6) vs. Notre Dame/Rutgers (11)

-TORVIK
Alabama (27th)
Notre Dame/Rutgers (40th/76th)
-KENPOM
Alabama (14th)
Notre Dame/Rutgers (52nd/74th)

*Must Watch: 3/5 (ND) 4/5 (Rutgers)

PREDICTION

There’s no reason to talk matchup here as it’s still up in the air. However, the metrics give Alabama a 66% chance of moving to the 2nd-round. That’s above the 62-64% threshold for 6-seeds vs. 11-seeds. It can change based on matchups, and Crimson Tide fans should be rooting for Notre Dame, in my opinion. I’ll take Alabama to move on, as there are better 11 vs. 6 options. Metrics give the Crimson Tide a 24.4% chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen.

Texas Tech (3) vs. Montana State (14)

-TORVIK
Texas Tech (5th)
Montana State (144th)
-KENPOM
Texas Tech (9th)
Montana State (125th)

*Must Watch: 1.5/5

PREDICTION

There is no need to deep-dive this matchup, Texas Tech is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and Montana State ranks outside the top-150 in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Red Raiders have what it takes to make a deep run; they shouldn’t struggle in this one. Torvik/KenPom both have over 90% chance for Texas Tech.

Michigan State (7) vs. Davidson (10)

-TORVIK
Michigan State (36th)
Davidson (50th)
-KENPOM
Michigan State (40th)
Davidson (41st)

* Must Watch: 3.5/5

PREDICTION
Foster Loyer, Davidson guard, gets a revenge game against his former school. Davidson had a fantastic offense throughout the entire season, ranking 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They can slow this game down, and their shot selection has proven to be above average, ranking 13th in eFG%. However, the question will be can Michigan State get the guard play to take advantage of a Davidson defense that’s susceptible to slashing guards? I’ll take Davidson to move on, as they have a very similar chance to make a Sweet 16 that Michigan State has. KenPom has it as a 50/50, and Torvik has it 54% in favor of the Spartans. This is a play against history, as the favorites are likely to win in these situations.

Duke (2) vs. Cal State Fullerton (15)

-TORVIK
Duke (9th)
Cal State Fullerton (174th)
-KENPOM
Duke (12th)
Cal State Fullerton (149th)

*Must Watch: 1/5

PREDICTION

There is no reason to spend much time analyzing this matchup; tune in to watch Coach K’s final March Madness run begins after a pretty disappointing end to the regular season and conference tournament. Duke is given a 92% chance to move on.

EAST REGION

Hottest teams: Akron, Saint Peter’s, Saint Mary’s
Coldest teams: Wyoming, Kentucky, Marquette

Baylor (1) vs. Norfolk State (16)

-TORVIK
Baylor (4th)
Norfolk State (182nd)
-KENPOM
Baylor (5th)
Norfolk State (168th)

*Must Watch: 1.5/5

PREDICTION
Baylor is far superior, even if they do have the lowest odds (still at 95.1%) of the 1-seeds to win in the 1st-round.

North Carolina (8) vs. Marquette (9)

-TORVIK
North Carolina (32nd)
Marquette (52nd)
-KENPOM
North Carolina (29th)
Marquette (47th)

*Must Watch: 3.5/5

PREDICTION

These 8 vs. 9 matchups will likely be one or two possession games. Marquette comes in as one of the coldest teams in this region, while North Carolina is starting to find its groove a bit. Conversely, Marquette is also a bit over-seeded, as you can see by their ranks. The Golden Eagles are seen as a 12 or 13 seed. The metrics favor the Tar Heels (57%/55%), and history shows the favorites in these matchups wins at a decent clip (58/26).

Saint Mary’s (5) vs. Indiana (12)

-TORVIK
Saint Mary’s (17th)
Indiana (23rd)
-KENPOM
Saint Mary’s (16th)
Indiana (36th)

*Must Watch: 4/5 

PREDICTION

Saint Mary’s is one of the best defensive teams in the nation and has the makes of a team that can make a Sweet 16 (28% chance). However, they’ll be facing the best 12-seed in the field. The Gaels were rooting for Wyoming to pull off their matchup against Indiana, as the metrics give Saint Mary’s a 72% chance of victory against the Cowboys vs. just a 56% chance of beating Indiana. I’ll take the Hoosiers to move onto the 2nd-round.

UCLA (4) vs. Akron (13)

-TORVIK
UCLA (10th)
Akron (134th)
-KENPOM
UCLA (8th)
Akron (131st)

*Must Watch: 2/5

PREDICTION

I mentioned above that I liked some of the 13-seeds vs. the 4-seeds this year. This isn’t one of them. Akron has the lowest (10%) chance to pull off the upset out of the four 13-seeds. The Bruins are given a ~90% to win here.

Texas (6) vs. Virginia Tech (11)

-TORVIK
Texas(15th)
Virginia Tech (21st)
-KENPOM
Texas (15th)
Virginia Tech (23rd)

*Must Watch: 5/5

PREDICTION

As you can see, Virginia Tech is severely under-seeded here, and Texas is a little under-seeded. The metrics like the Hokies and that could be in part to how bad Texas’ defense has been as of late. Texas’ odds of advancing past the Hokies falls well below the threshold of 63%. The metrics give Texas just a 56% chance of winning. Mike Young has three players who shoot above 38% from behind the arc, making it difficult for a Texas defense that’s middle of the pack to defend three-point shots (306th in 3P%D over the past month). The secret to the late season success for the Hokies? It’s the fact that they’ve been shooting the three-ball unconsciously. Give me Storm Murphy, Hunter Catoor, and Keve Aluma to pull it off.

*NOTE – Be careful choosing this one in large bracket pools, as ESPN is reporting 53% of the brackets have the Hokies upsetting Texas.

Purdue (3) vs. Yale (14)

-TORVIK
Purdue (14th)
Yale (147th)
-KENPOM
Purdue (14th)
Yale (147th)

*Must Watch: 2/5

PREDICTION

Purdue is the 2nd-highest rated 3-seed to advance to the 2nd round. But stay tuned on this Boilermakers team…

Murray State (7) vs. San Francisco (10)

-TORVIK
Murray State (43rd)
San Francisco (39th)
-KENPOM
Murray State (27th)
San Francisco (21st)

*Must Watch: 5/5

PREDICTION

In short, throw the seedings out the window. San Francisco is the favorite according to both Vegas and the metrics (55% and 61%). And seeing as their 2nd round matchup has the 2nd-best odds to reach the Sweet 16 out of all 2-seeds, I will trust the numbers and forego the matchup here. I advise tuning in because this is going to be a dogfight of a game.

Kentucky (2) vs. Saint Peters (15)

-TORVIK
Kentucky (8th)
Saint Peters (121st)
-KENPOM
Kentucky (3rd)
Saint Peters (118th)

*Must Watch: 1/5

PREDICTION

Kentucky has the best odds of moving onto the 2nd-round (91.6%) of any 2-seed.

SOUTH REGION

Hottest teams: Loyola Chicago, Tennessee, UAB
Coldest teams: Ohio State, Seton Hall, Illinois

Arizona (1) vs. Wright State/Bryant (16)

-TORVIK
Arizona (6th)
Wright State/Bryant(196th/192nd)
-KENPOM
Arizona (2nd)
Wright State/Bryant (182nd/183rd)

*Must Watch: 1/5

PREDICTION
Arizona has a top-10 offense and the 2nd-best odds of any 1-seed to advance to the Sweet 16. 

Seton Hall (8) vs. TCU (9)

-TORVIK
Seton Hall (37th)
TCU (47th)
-KENPOM
Seton Hall (35th)
TCU (38th)

*Must Watch: 3.5/5

PREDICTION

This is an instance where I go against the metrics. In large part, because Seton Hall hopes it can get anything at point guard after Aiken endured a season ending injury. Neither of these teams is given more than a 12% chance of advancing to the Sweet 16, so I will ride the hotter team. Give me the Horned Frogs. Torvik has 53% Seton Hall, KenPom has it as a 50/50 split.

Houston (5) vs. UAB (12)

TORVIK
Houston (2nd)
UAB (60th)
KENPOM
Houston (4th)
UAB (46th)

*Must Watch: 3/5

PREDICTION

Jelly Walker. Elite defense. UAB ranks as 7th best 3-point shooting team in the field; unfortunately, they’re facing the 3rd best 3-point defense in the field. KenPom and Torvik both have Houston over the 75% threshold used to put 5-seeds on upset alert.

Illinois (4) vs. Chattanooga (13)

TORVIK
Illinois (16th)
Chattanooga (60th)
-KENPOM
Illinois (4th)
Chattanooga (46th)

*Must Watch: 4.5/5

PREDICTION

I’m going to forego the matchup talk on this one and jump straight to the metrics. Illinois is given just a 69% chance to move on. They’re given a 28% chance to make the Sweet 16. A full 25% lower than (5) Houston. It’s March; give me the Mocs.

*NOTE – Only 15% of ESPN Tournament Challenge brackets have penciled in the Mocs, and over 50% have Illinois in the Sweet 16, while the metrics give them less than half that chance to make it there.

Colorado State (6) vs. Michigan (11)

TORVIK
Colorado State (41st)
Michigan (26th)
KENPOM
Colorado State (31st)
Michigan (33rd)

*Must Watch: 2/5

PREDICTION

Michigan ranks in the top 10-percentile of roster heights, while Colorado State will be undersized, ranking in the bottom 15-percentile. Colorado State is not a team that can overcome a decently sized deficit, as its pace of play is among the slowest in the field. Pair that with the fact that Michigan is a very-capable rebounding team, and it’s hard to pick against the Wolverines in this matchup. Torvik- Michigan 51%, KenPom- 50/50.

Tennessee (3) vs. Longwood (14)

TORVIK
Tennessee (7th)
Longwood (143rd)
KENPOM
Tennessee (7th)
Longwood (144th)

*Must Watch: 5/5 for Volunteers fans, 1/5 for everyone else

PREDICTION
This could be Rick Barnes’ best chance yet for a deep run at Tennessee. According to the metrics, Tennessee is the most likely 3-seed to advance to a Sweet 16 and has historically good odds at an Elite Eight.

Ohio State (7) vs. Loyola Chicago (10)

-TORVIK
Ohio State (29th)
Loyola Chicago (33rd)
-KENPOM
Ohio State (32nd)
Loyola Chicago (24th)

*Must Watch: 5/5

PREDICTION

The Ramblers are ~53% likely to pull the “upset.” The favorites in 7 vs. 10 matchups have over a win-percentage right at 75%. Both the metrics and history say to side with Loyola against Ohio State. It should be an outstanding game to watch at lunchtime on Friday.

Villanova (2) vs. Delaware (15)

-TORVIK
Villanova (11th)
Delaware (138th)
-KENPOM
Villanova (11th)
Delaware (141st)

*Must Watch: 2/5

PREDICTION

When looking at potentially scary situations for 2-seeds, you look at free throws and eFG%. Unfortunately for the Fightin’ Blue Hens, Villanova keeps teams off the stripe and contests close and mid-range twos. I could draw close if things get weird, but I fully expect Villanova to advance.

MIDWEST REGION

Hottest teams: Jacksonville State, Creighton, Miami
Coldest teams: Iowa State, Providence, USC

Kansas (1) vs. Texas Southern/Texas A&M CC (16)

-TORVIK
Kansas (3rd)
-KENPOM
Kansas (6th)

*Must Watch: 1/5

PREDICTION

If Texas Southern wins in the First Four, they’re given the 2nd-best odds to pull off a historical upset out of the 16-seeds in this year’s field. Keep an eye on this one early. 

San Diego State (8) vs. Creighton (9)

-TORVIK
San Diego State (25th)
Creighton (59th)
-KENPOM
San Diego State (22nd)
Creighton (53rd)

*Must Watch: 3/5

PREDICTION

First of all, Creighton turns the ball over way too much (304th in the nation). The Aztecs create turnovers on defense early and often, ranking 29th in the nation. This season, the Bluejays’ bread and butter have been shots at the rim, an area where San Diego State excels at defending. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Creighton overcomes this mismatch against the Aztecs. When you pair this with the fact that the metrics also like San Diego State, I have to take them.

*NOTE – 52% of brackets have Creighton moving on.

Iowa (5) vs. Richmond (12)

-TORVIK
Iowa (16th)
Richmond (85th)
-KENPOM
Iowa (21st)
Richmond (85th)

*Must Watch: 2/5

PREDICTION

The stylistic matchup here may be enough to keep this game interesting at times, but ultimately, history tells us Iowa is a safe(ish) bet. 5-seeds above 75% by the metrics have an 80% win percentage. Iowa sits at 84% on Torvik and 81% on KenPom.

Providence (4) vs. South Dakota State (13)

-TORVIK
Providence (45th)
South Dakota State (74th)
-KENPOM
Providence (49th)
South Dakota State (71st)

*Must Watch: 3.5/5

PREDICTION

Providence is one of the worst 4-seeds in recent memory. In the past month, their sub-par defense (89th adjust defensive efficiency) has dropped more than 100 spots. Meanwhile, the Jackrabbits have a top-20 offense and the nation’s best eFG%. Can the Friars keep up? Well, as of late, no. Their offense has sputtered over the last month, falling more than 100 spots in eFG%. You might also mention that 4-seeds with less than 75% chance of victory have been an abysmal 15-13 the past 7 years. Providence is given just a 57% of beating South Dakota State. Time for the Friars luck to finally run dry.

LSU (6) vs. Iowa State (11)

-TORVIK
LSU (24th)
Iowa State (51st)
KENPOM
LSU (19th)
Iowa State (48th)

*Must Watch: 2.5/5

PREDICTION

LSU has the best chance to win out of any 6-seed. Both Torvik and KenPom give them a 62% chance of advancing. LSU just fired their coach, but Iowa State does not match up well with the Tigers. LSU ranks 8th in defensive efficiency, while the Cyclones are 161st in offensive efficiency.

Wisconsin (3) vs. Colgate (14)

-TORVIK
Wisconsin (28th)
Colgate (132nd)
-KENPOM
Wisconsin (34th)
Colgate (119th)

*Must Watch: 4/5

PREDICTION

Wisconsin is severely over-seeded, and they’re one of the colder teams in this region. Colgate comes in as one of the best offenses in eFG%. The metrics are generally harsh on Wisconsin, but they give them an 81% chance of moving on. However, Colgate has the offense to overcome the Badgers defense. In addition to this, Colgate has one of the most experienced teams in the field. This is primarily a fade of Wisconsin making the Sweet 16 as they’re given just a 36% chance to do so, and 75% of ESPN brackets have them there. Follow this pick at your own risk.

USC (7) vs. Miami (10)

-TORVIK
USC (62nd)
Miami (54th)
-KENPOM
USC (42nd)
Miami (62nd)

*Must Watch: 2/5

PREDICTION

I ultimately don’t have either of these teams advancing any further, and it’s hard to imagine Miami being able to out-rebound USC. The Trojans have the 21st ranked ORB% and 128th DRB%, compared to Miami’s 309th and 265th. Torvik and KenPom have USC at 52% likely to move on.

Auburn (2) vs. Jacksonville State (15)

-TORVIK
Auburn (13th)
Jacksonville State (146th)
-KENPOM
Auburn (1oth)
Jacksonville State (146th)

*Must Watch: 1/5

PREDICTION

While Auburn does have the worst odds to move on, it’s still above 90%. And stylistically, they shouldn’t struggle with the worst 15-seed in the field.

ROUND OF 32

WEST REGION

  • Gonzaga (1) over Memphis (9)
    -Gonzaga 83% chance at making Sweet Sixteen.
  • UCONN (5) over Vermont (13)
    -Only 3 13-seeds have ever made the Sweet Sixteen.
  • Texas Tech (3) over Alabama (6)
    -Texas Tech 65% chance at making Sweet Sixteen.
  • Duke (2) over Davidson (10)
    -Duke 64% chance at making Sweet Sixteen.

EAST REGION

  • Baylor (1) over UNC (8)
    -Baylor 3rd worst chance among 1-seeds to make Sweet Sixteen.
  • UCLA (4) over Saint Mary’s/Indiana (5/12)
    -Best chance to advance to Sweet Sixteen among 4-seeds (58%).
  • Virginia Tech (11) over Purdue (3)
    -3rd best chance at Sweet Sixteen of 10+ seeds, Purdue 5th worst chance of 1-4 seeds.
  • Kentucky (2) over San Francisco (10)
    -2nd best chance at 68% among 2-seeds to make Sweet Sixteen.

SOUTH REGION

  • Arizona (1) over TCU (9)
    -2nd best chance at 73% among 1-seeds to make Sweet Sixteen.
  • Houston (5) over Chattanooga (13)
    -Chattanooga 2nd worst chance among 13-seeds, Houston 2nd best chance among 5-seeds (54%).
  • Tennessee (3) over Michigan (11)
    -Tennessee best chance at Sweet Sixteen among 3-seeds (66%), Michigan 2nd worst chance among 11-seeds.
  • Loyola Chicago (10) over Villanova (2)
    -Loyola 3rd best chance at Sweet Sixteen among 8-10 seeds, Villanova worst chance among 2-seeds.

MIDWEST REGION

  • Kansas (1) over San Diego State (8)
    -Kansas worst chance (68%) to make Sweet Sixteen among 1-seeds. Beware.
  • Iowa (5) over South Dakota State (13)
    -Iowa 2nd best chance among 4-6 seeds to make Sweet Sixteen (60%), and 2nd best chance at making Elite Eight (31%).
  • LSU (6) over Colgate (14)
    -Just 25% of ESPN brackets have LSU in Sweet Sixteen, where the metrics give them a 40% chance in making it.
  • Auburn (2) over USC (7)
    -Auburn best chance at Sweet Sixteen among 2-seeds (68%).

SWEET SIXTEEN

WEST REGION

  • Gonzaga (1) over UCONN (5)
    -Gonzaga 70% chance at Elite Eight, historically high.
  • Texas Tech (3) over Duke (2)
    -Texas Tech (38%), Duke (35%) at Elite Eight.

EAST REGION

  • UCLA (4) over Baylor (1)
    -UCLA 3rd-best chance (32%) at Elite Eight among 3-6 seeds, Baylor worst chance (44%) among 1-seeds.
  • Kentucky (2) over Virginia Tech (11)
    -Kentucky 5th best chance at Elite Eight among 1-3 seeds, VT 3rd best 10+ seed odds to make Elite Eight.

SOUTH REGION

  • Arizona (1) over Houston (5)
    -Arizona 2nd best chance at Elite Eight among 1-seeds.
  • Tennessee (3) over Loyola Chicago (10)
    -Tennessee (38%) at Elite Eight is better than Villanova (34%)

MIDWEST REGION

  • Iowa (5) over Kansas (1)
    -76% of ESPN Brackets have Kansas in Elite Eight where the metrics give them a 45% of making it.
  • Auburn (2) over LSU (6)
    -Auburn best chance (48%) among 2-seeds to make Elite Eight.

ELITE EIGHT

WEST REGION

  • Gonzaga (1) over Texas Tech (3)
    -Gonzaga over 53% chance to make Final Four.

EAST REGION

  • UCLA (4) over Kentucky (2)
    -Torvik gives UCLA a 49% chance to win over Kentucky.

SOUTH REGION

  • Arizona (1) over Tennessee (3)
    -Torvik makes this game a 50% split; I’ll take Arizona in the rematch.

MIDWEST REGION

  • Iowa (5) over Auburn (2)
    -Torvik makes this game a 50% split; Iowa has the best Final Four odds among 5 or lower-seeds.

FINAL FOUR

Gonzaga (1) over UCLA (4)
-Gonzaga 38% chance to make National Championship.

Arizona (1) over Iowa (5)
-Torvik gives Arizona a 54% chance to win over Iowa.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

Gonzaga (1) over Arizona (1)
-Torvik gives Gonzaga a 72% chance to win over Arizona.

 

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