We are still so far off from the NFL season kicking off, but it’s never too early to be looking at gambling lines. There’s also no telling how much these lines could change between now and when the season starts, but these are up to date at the time of publishing.
Today, we’ll look at some interesting picks for win totals. It is called gambling for a reason; there are no givens when it comes to sports. But these are the ones that jumped out as possible winners. All lines below are courtesy of our friends at MyBookie. We love our sponsors.
Bengals Over 5 1/2 Wins
Zack Taylor’s second year in charge should go better than his first. Which isn’t saying much, considering it couldn’t get much worse. Andy Dalton’s worst season since joining the NFL mixed with an injured AJ Green and a shambolic offensive line will do that to just about anyone.
Now, though, Joe Burrow is at the helm with one of the deepest wide receiver groups in the league and a revamped offensive line.
Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield, and Kyler Murray all had at least 5 1/2 wins in their rookie seasons (Murray had five wins and a tie?) after going first overall in the draft. You could make a convincing argument that Burrow is as good or better than all of them.
The defense will probably still be average. But six wins is such a low bar to clear that the Bengals can probably pull it off, especially in the top-heavy AFC North.
Browns Under 8 1/2 Wins
Speaking of the AFC North, how in the world is the Browns line this high? They haven’t had a nine-win or better season since 2007. And it’s supposed to happen now? With their fourth head coach in three seasons?
Yes, their receivers and Nick Chubb are good. And Baker Mayfield had a good rookie season two years ago. Jack Conklin and Austin Hooper were good free agent additions this offseason. But it’s all for naught if Kevin Stefanski doesn’t know how to coach. Some of his predecessors were good offensive minds, too. And look where they all ended up.
The Browns will probably split with the Bengals and Steelers, but they won’t beat the Ravens. If they go 2-4 in the division, can they go 7-3 in the rest of their games? I doubt it.
Chiefs Over 11 1/2 Wins
This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone, but the Chiefs are going to be very good this year. Sure, 12 wins or more is a lot to ask for in the NFL, but they did it last year with relative ease. And that was with Matt Moore starting two games.
If their key pieces can stay healthy, they’re a lock for 12 or more wins.
To look at it from a different angle, there are generally at least four teams every year that finish with at least 12 wins. The Chiefs are as safe a bet as anyone to do it (again) this year.
Colts Under 9 1/2 Wins
This is mostly just because I’m not buying the Phillip Rivers hype. Rivers wasn’t that great before he left San Diego/LA/wherever the Chargers are these days. And now he’s just supposed to spring back to a 10-win quarterback because he used to work with his new head coach back in the mid-2010s?
Rivers has had one 10-win season in the last ten years. And it wasn’t with Frank Reich on staff.
Fun fact that is completely unrelated to this season: Rivers’ regular-season starting record with a healthy LaDainian Tomlinson in the backfield is 45-17. Without LT, he is 77-83. I just thought you should know.
Some are saying the Colts have the easiest schedule in the NFL this year. They’ll need it if they’re going to cover this line. Ten wins just seems too high for this Colts team.
Giants Under 6 Wins
A team that hasn’t cleared five wins in three years hired a career special teams coordinator with zero head coaching experience as their head coach. It just sounds like a disaster, doesn’t it?
If Daniel Jones hits his sophomore slump this season, which isn’t at all uncommon these days, the Giants may be pushing for one of the top picks in next year’s draft.
Six wins? At the time of writing, the Giants are favored in two games this season. Two games! They’re lucky they get to play the Redskins twice.
The Giants may not hit six wins until after they get the Dave Gettleman to stink off of them. There’s no telling when that will happen, either.
Titans Over 8 1/2 Wins
The Titans win nine games every year, so just go ahead and lock this one in. I don’t make the rules.